PEAKTALK 2.0 (12:31PM)

Time for some in-house updates as I owe you all a brief note explaining the relative silence here. There are two reasons really. The first one is that there is quite a bit of activity on the business side and my clients deserve my time above all else. There simply hasn’t been the time to do any meaningful blogging.

More or less related is the second reason. I have decided to not only do a full Peaktalk redesign and upgrade – currently in the works with the help of our good friends at Sekimori – but once that is complete to change the nature of the site. It will revert to fewer updates, longer pieces and a broader range of subjects. So stay tuned, a rebirth is in the making.

EUROVISION (09:24PM)

There was a time when the Eurovision Song Contest was a major event that had European households glued to their TV-sets. It was also the time when the Dutch and Israeli judges would give each other the maximum allowable number of points irrespective of the quality of the song in question which usually was quite poor.

No longer, although it can still create some controversy today. Despite its quality problems, there were definite gems and the best Eurovision song in my mind was France's entry in 1977: Marie Myriam with "L'oiseau et l'enfant" or for the non-French speaking contingent, "The Bird and the Child". A vintage French chanson:

Thirty years ago Marie Myriam was the winner, the last time France won.

FORTUYN, FIVE YEARS ON (08:38AM)

My column with some video is up at PJM here.

Bruce Bawer's column, Europe's Champion of Liberty, is here.

UPDATE: For the Dutch-speaking contingent, here is an interview with Fortuyn recorded five years after his death. It is both amazing and accurate. Of course, these sort of recordings reflect the 'what if' and 'we miss him' sentiments, which are still very present in Dutch society.

THE DAY OF THE OUTSIDER (08:18AM)

A record turn-out in France today and the possibility of dramatic change. Interestingly, the mechanics of Fortuyn's political impact resemble that of Sarkozy's who is also viewed as an anti-establishment outsider:

Throughout his life, Nicolas Sarkozy, 52, has fit awkwardly into the comfortable club of French leadership, like a brassy character actor dropping one-liners in the midst of a regal drama. In photos taken a decade ago, he stands out from the crowd like an awkward interloper: Surrounded by fellow ministers, he has always looked and acted like an outsider.

[...]

Mr. Sarkozy has sold himself and his policies as a violent break from French traditions — “ le rupteur,” he called it at first, then softening it to a “ tranquil rupteur” this year after advisers said it would upset voters.

[ ... ]

What has shocked France the most, driving half the country away from Mr. Sarkozy in fear and the other half cautiously into his arms, is that he is talking about things that have not been part of French politics since the Second World War: ethnicity, religion, morality, and, above all else, the importance of order and discipline.

France too has been served with a wake up call from a maverick. The Dutch example has shown that the larger parties after Fortuyn's death acquired parts of his agenda and gently tried to push the country back to the way things were before. Let's see if the French are able to effect lasting change.

UPDATE: Sarkozy is the projected winner according to The Times:

Polling does not end in France until 8pm (7pm UK time), until which time it is illegal to publish exit polls in France, but two Belgian media organisations ran unofficial estimates from the French Interior Ministry’s political intelligence service showed Sarkozy grabbing 53-54 per cent of the vote in today's second round.

Lots more here.

And Fausta: Sarko-O-O!

POLITICS AND MARKETS: BLAIR & BROWN (10:20PM)

Or how the rising gold price presages the end of Britain's love affair with New Labour. A classic, really.

SARKO-SEGO: CLOSE (07:37PM)

The latest poll numbers are in and Christopher Caldwell explains how Royal has been able to come this close, thanks to the Bayrou vote:

" ... the election will be decided by who gets the votes of Bayrou's 18 percent. Bayrou said he would not endorse anyone. But, having said that "Nicolas Sarkozy, through his closeness to the business world and media powers, through his taste for intimidation and threats, will concentrate powers like never before," he didn't have to.

One week to go.

UNCHECKED FANATICISM (10:33AM)

Canada's conservative government came out with its plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions last week, a plan that in general has been described as 'politically expedient' and 'staking out the middle ground'. And if that is indeed the case it will for now be sufficient to take the wind out of the Liberal opposition's Goresque green momentum, while at the same time keeping a deeply unsettled business sector at ease.

Yet, some constituencies will never be satisfied and the green movement, notably Al Gore himself who called the plan a fraud yesterday. But prime-minister Harper is experiencing dissent and concerns on the right flank too and not without reason. The plan to implement an outright ban to sell and use traditional light bulbs has provided excellent fodder to evoke the advent of the eco-fascist state. Columnist George Jonas explains:

But for nuts we don't need to go all the way to Iran. The Green Gestapo of the environment seems ready to launch nuts right here at home. Eco-fascists share the self-righteous arrogance of Islamo-fascists, safety-Nazis and other control freaks. They're like the multicultural censors excising "Merry Christmas!" or the feminist ones neutering the word "fisherman" and substituting "fisher" as the mot juste. They're the anti-gun crusaders obliging us to register Grandpa's squirrel-plonker; they're the Victorian don't-step-on-the-grass crowd; they're our version of the Persian dress police. They're prepared to enforce a government-regulated climate in Canada, indoors and outdoors, literally and figuratively, itching to counter global warming with an economic ice age.

Environmentalism has alternately taken on the guise of religion and political extremism, yet in both cases it is essentially unchecked fanaticism. And it has traction. If you can get a free-trading conservative like Harper to sign-off on a blanket light bulb ban you know that one side of the debate is having an incredible amount of success in getting its message across. To hear Al Gore describing these plans as a fraud is exactly the kind of indicator we need to have to know that the stage of reasoned debate about climate change is long over. The fanatics now own the environmental debate, and they're winning it.

FREE SPEECH AND CONTEXT (10:09AM)

In an LA Times column, Ian Buruma explains the importance of 'context' when dealing with the conflict between 'hate speech' and 'free speech':

When it comes to banning hateful words, it must be imperative to show that they are designed to cause violence and, moreover, that they are likely to do so. Banning or censoring historic texts seems pointless because they can be put in the framework of the times when they were written.

Buruma prefers a US-style constitutional right to free speech believing that it does instill a cautionary instinct in most citizens to use this right responsibly. He's right there I think, but it should be noted that banning certain forms of speech because "they are designed to incite violence" is a huge legal morass. In some European countries this condition has been used precisely to ban certain forms of speech which - given their context - were relatively harmless. As I've pointed out earlier the very presence of laws and sentiments that seek to control speech have a tendency to create the obscene phenomenon of self-censorship. Buruma has an excellent example:

It is easy to go too far, however. If we censor anything that might cause offense, we undermine our right to free speech. In a recent production of "The Magic Flute" in New York, the English translation of the libretto, which was sung in German, left out all disobliging references to women and to the dark skin of Monostatos, the Moor. This is a clear example of going too far. Mozart's librettist, Emanuel Schikaneder, certainly was not promoting aggression against women or black people.

As usual, do read the entire piece.

JERUSALEM OF GOLD (01:34PM)

Yes, it’s a bit early to start running videos that celebrate Israel’s independence - May 14 is the exact day - but I am totally taken by Ofra Haza’s rendition of Yerushalaim Shel Zahav, which I discovered by accident on YouTube last night. Ergo, I can't wait and share it now. It’s a mesmerizing performance, regardless of whether you like Israel or not:

This video dates back to 1998 when Ofra Haza was still in the prime of her life. She died two years later at the age of forty-two of AIDS related organ failure.

GORBY, YELTSIN AND ... DENG (01:23PM)

Charles Krauthammer eulogizes Boris Yeltsin and makes the exact point I made earlier this week about Gorbachev:

Credit for the fall of communism usually is given to two sets of actors. On the one side, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and John Paul II, whose relentless pressure caused a hollowed-out system to collapse. On the other side, conventional mythology credits Mikhail Gorbachev.

This is quite wrong. True, Gorbachev inadvertently caused the collapse of communism. But his intention was always to save it. To the very end, Gorbachev believed in it. His mission was to reform communism in order to make it work. To do that, the Soviet system had to become more human -- i.e., more in tune with real human nature -- and thus more humane. Gorbachev's problem was that humane communism is an oxymoron.

Read the entire piece and the apt conclusion that Putin's ascendancy is a belated attempt to follow Deng's successful approach to reform China.

THE DEATH OF RETIREMENT? (07:45PM)

It may look like a far-fetched notion, but in this fascinating article from Nicholas Eberstadt and Hans Groth it becomes clear that there is indeed a silver lining to Europe's demographic problems:

Another economic benefit of healthy aging is that longer and healthier lifespans mean more vigorous senior citizens. The payoff would come not from putting great-grandparents to work but mainly from greater productive activity among people in their 50s and 60s. The generation of western Europeans currently 50 to 74 years old is more physically robust, and better educated and trained, than any before in that age group in the continent's history. The health and education of similarly aged cohorts in the future can be expected to increase further over the next quarter century--even as ordinary working conditions in Western Europe's knowledge-based and service-driven economy continue to become less arduous. All of this could make for an upsurge in economic activity among older western Europeans.

I have long argued that it is ridiculous to forcibly retire perfectly healthy and productive citizens only because they have reached the arbitrary mark of '60' or '65'. That in particular is an issue when the cost of that is passed on to society at large. Some nations are catching on to this, the Germans for instance have bravely set the first steps on the road to retirement age reform a little while ago. The benefits would translate into such tangibles as increased purchasing power and enlarging the scope for savings which in turn would benefit investment and growth. As obvious as the fix is, the harder it will be to implement as it requires a significant change in social and cultural attitudes, note where Europeans stand today:

Yet, over the last generation, western Europeans have translated all of their increased life expectancy--and then some--into leisure time. As life expectancy has risen steadily, the average age of retirement has fallen.

[ ... ]

Contrast these developments with patterns in other affluent OECD societies. Although in the United States, Japan, and South Korea labor-force participation at older ages has also declined as prosperity has increased, a major gap now separates these countries from prosperous western European ones.

The nature of European retirement will therefore have to change for the old continent to maintain its living standards or allow them to keep growing at roughly the same pace as North America and emerging economies. The beauty of it all is that these changes should be within reach even when we take into account that uniquely European obsession with leisure. Wealth can be built at a far earlier age allowing not so much the option to eventually retire, but the flexibility to work part-time later in life. Or better still, pursue career interests that are less driven by the need to pay the bills but by finding work that addresses self-fulfillment while matching the needs for “downtime” that come with advanced age.

I for one can not see myself retire fully, but I do look forward to shifting around some of my current activities so that they match my interests better. If I can continue to get paid for that, all the better. Sure, there will always be a mandatory component to setting retirement terms, but we should be able to move away from today’s often expensive and highly arbitrary model to something which actually generates wealth for a society. Europe, take note.

HIRSI ALI'S BASE? (12:09AM)

I’ve always been quite generous in my support for Ayaan Hirsi Ali and there is no need to recalibrate that at all. Still, I do think we need to look a bit more critically at how her actions go down in what should be her core constituency. In The Netherlands more than a few Muslim women were in fact quite relieved to see her depart according to this article which focuses once more on Hirsi Ali’s polarizing actions. Maybe Myrtus has some time to comment on this?

UPDATE: Myrtus responds here and here . Let's just say that as a woman with a similar Muslim background and who has made a similar journey she isn't all that impressed with Hirsi Ali's approach. This quote is both clever and intriguing:

One thing that bugs me about Ayaan Hirsi Ali is that she's so anti-male. When it comes to men, you will rarely hear her give credit where it's due or say anything good about men in general, let alone her own father, who seems to have passed on to her those special genes for constantly being on the run leaving a trail of havoc in the political scene wherever he goes.

TRUTH AND COMPLIANCE (12:00AM)

I do not know how many dinner parties or other social events I have had to sit through - biting my tongue - where the latest on global warming or ‘war on terror’ conspiracy theories were served up as absolute and undeniable truths. Maybe I should just be myself and like Andrew Klavan take the risk of losing a few friends. He’s explained it all in your must-read this week, The Big White Lie and also manages to produce the absolute gem of the month:

With its tortuous attempts to rename unpleasant facts out of existence—he’s not crippled, dear, he’s handicapped; it’s not a slum, it’s an inner city; it’s not surrender, it’s redeployment—leftism has outlived its own failure by hiding itself within the most labyrinthine construct of social delicacy since Victoria was queen.

Read the entire thing and consider your relationship with what you consider to be ‘truth’.

BORIS YELTSIN (09:44PM)

I have no particular feelings over Boris Yeltsin's death, but do rememember with fondness and excitement that late summer of 1991 when he stood atop a tank to defy the last attempt to preserve hardline Communist rule. For that, and for his generous treatment of the early stage investors in the new Russia he has definitely deserved his spot in history. It is odd though to note how much of the blame he gets for the chaos that ensued and which has now set the stage for another round of corrupt dictators occupying the Kremlin. Despite the neverending stream of hagiographies about the king of perestroika, very little has so far been said about Michail Gorbachev's conspicuous role in the descent and chaos of what once was a world power.

A good round-up with some great photos from the Yeltsin years can be found here.

RANDOM RECOLLECTION: In Hong Kong in the 1990s there was a fairly popular bar named after the man, Yelt's Inn. Not sure if it still exists.

MEGA-BANK (09:22PM)

The largest Dutch bank, ABN-Amro has been snapped up by my first employer, Barclays in a fairly spectacular deal that so far appears to have outwitted another group of suitors:

ABN Amro agreed today to be acquired by Barclays for 67 billion euros, or $91 billion, creating one of the world’s largest banks in a carefully crafted deal that reduces — but does not eliminate — the chances of another suitor coming in with a higher bid to buy and break up the bank.

In a surprise facet of the deal, ABN Amro, the largest Dutch bank, said that it had arranged to sell LaSalle Bank, its attractive American business, to Bank of America for $21 billion in cash. LaSalle is the corporate gem that had drawn Royal Bank of Scotland, the British bank that teamed up with two other European banks, to mount a counter bid for ABN Amro.

It's a good deal for shareholders and from that point I regret having dumped my ABN-Amro stock a few years too early, but that is not really all that big a deal. Much more important is having made an early career call after sitting through the now infamous UBS/SBC merger in 1998/99. There will be an awful lot of bankers walking the streets of London and Amsterdam trying to re-invent themselves, not always the easiest of tasks. And this deal will probably trigger a wave of further consolidation in a sector that will continue to rationalize and spit out valuable financial and entrepreneurial talent.