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Iran Archives
Sunday, April 1, 2007
LONDON vs. TEHRAN

Richard Fernandez has some useful comments on the drawbacks of being too overt in laying out a roadmap for a diplomatic resolution. Meanwhile David Frum looks at the long record of past incidents between the West and Iran where diplomatic exchanges in the end secured some sort of - often highly unsatisfactory - resolution.

I've been quite busy and would have liked to spend more time on this affair last week, but just haven't had the time. May be this week. Stay tuned.

In the meantime consider Niall Ferguson's take.


Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 10:50 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Friday, February 2, 2007
NAZANIN & NAZANIN
Nazanin-Fatehi.jpg Miss_world_canada-Nazanin_Afshin-Jam-4.jpg

Let’s end the week with some really good news, and that is the release of 19-year old Nazanin Fatehi who faced the death penalty in Iran for killing a man who tried to rape her a few years ago. The campaign to get her released was initiated and led by Iranian-born and Vancouver-based artist and model Nazanin Afshin-Jam.

This affair got momentum apparently after someone in Europe who was concerned over Fatehi’s fate googled her name, but ended up finding only references to that other, more famous, Nazanin and contacted her. The latter got intrigued by the case, launched a website and a very active campaign which concluded this week with the release of Fatehi:

Last year she received a new trial and a five-judge panel unanimously overturned the murder charge.

Afshin-Jam's year-long campaign to save her namesake's life included a petition signed by 345,000 people, numerous speeches and rallies worldwide and months on the media circuit.

"Just the struggle kept me motivated to finally see it through to the end," said Afshin-Jam. "There were times when I was exhausted when I only had a few hours sleep each night but nothing was going to stop me until I knew I'd done everything that I could.

"I thought, I have to help this girl," Afshin-Jam said. "The pure injustice of it was what compelled me to take action."

It is an amazing but also truly encouraging story of what one individual can accomplish in the face of incredible odds. One can only hope that Afshin-Jam’s campaign continues as a platform for the many other women and men that languish in Iranian jails as a result of discriminatory laws and sexual prejudices.

NOTE: Some interesting (legal) background on the case can be found here.

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Tuesday, July 25, 2006
FRUM ON IRAN

David Frum once more explains, cogently, the Iran angle and why Hezbollah’s destruction is of paramount importance.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 09:34 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Sunday, July 23, 2006
MISUNDERSTANDING THE CONFLICT

The Dutch will go to the polls for a general election later this year – November to be precise - and one party in particular is projected to do well, namely the Socialist Party, a more radical and doctrinaire Labour Party offshoot. Its leader, Jan Marijnissen, made headlines last week by comparing jihadist terrorism to the Dutch resistance during World War II:

" Terrorism is a recurring thing throughout history and often has the intention to make life for an occupying power as difficult as possible. The Dutch have, during the Second World War here blown up city halls in order to disrupt Nazi Germany’s machine of destruction – most city halls kept registries with names of Jewish citizens. In the Middle East, things are not that different. Islamic fundamentalism, including its terrorist subsidiary, is a reaction to the occupation of Palestine by Israel, the American presence in the Middle East and the support of undemocratic regimes in the Middle East by the west "

Not only a false and to some highly insulting analogy, Marijnissen also fails to note that radical Islam is driven by religion and not by politics, a point that is not often understood in Europe's secular circles. As we have seen over the past few weeks, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is merely a useful conduit to expand the radical Islamic franchise as is so eloquently explained by Amir Taheri in the Times today:
The problem is that since the Iranian regime is Shi’ite it would not be easy to sell it to most Arabs, who are Sunni. To overcome that hurdle, it is necessary to persuade the Arabs that only Iran is sincere in its desire and capacity to wipe Israel off the map. Once that claim is sold to the Arabs, so Ahmadinejad hopes, they would rally behind his vision of the Middle East instead of the “American vision”.
The jury is out on whether the Palestinians would really enjoy life under Ahmadinejad’s Shi’ite umbrella, but that’s a topic for a very different discussion.

In the meantime Marijnissen has hurried to tone down his original comment on his own weblog as Dutch pollsters predict that he will pick up some 10% of the vote if an election were held today. If he does indeed manage that in November, the Socialist Party may become a player in parliament, possibly holding the balance of power. I will leave it to your imagination as to how that would affect the Dutch, and to some extent the European, debate over waging war on terror.

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Wednesday, May 3, 2006
HITCHENS vs. COLE

Some of you may have been following the spat between Christopher Hitchens and Juan Cole, to some extent mediated by Andrew Sullivan. It was a revealing discussion on a number of levels, both on the subject matter, Iran, and the way in which Cole resorted to a low level personal attack on Hitchens. Hugh Hewitt wraps it up in a very engaging interview with Hitchens, here.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 08:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, April 24, 2006
NUCLEAR IRAN: DÉJÀ VU

With another news conference Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad further upped the ante, defying the world on Iran’s insistence to increase its nuclear capabilities. It may be worthwhile to note that we’ve been here before and, no, I am not talking about the bungled attempt to desist North Korea from going nuclear. In the early 1960s a deep and definitive rift between China and the Soviet Union opened up the possibility for the US to neutralize China which was on the verge of detonating its first atomic weapon.

The National Security archives provide a trove of documents on America’s stance during the 1960-64 period, and they reveal quite clearly that John F. Kennedy did at a number of instances seriously contemplate pre-emptive action against China. It is of course impossible to establish what would have happened if Kennedy would not have been assassinated, but Lyndon Johnson, probably aware of the Cold War realities and the uncertain state of the Soviet-China relationship, moved in the other direction:

During the fall of 1963 Policy Planning Council staffer Robert Johnson established himself as the national security bureaucracy's chief analyst on the Chinese nuclear problem. Although President Kennedy and his advisers had given momentum to thinking about using force against Chinese nuclear facilities, Johnson tried to push official thinking in another direction: to consider the possibility that for a variety of reasons, a nuclear China would not be as ominous or act as recklessly as some had feared.

[ … ]

Prepared against the background of a possibly imminent Chinese nuclear test, Robert Johnson again considers both pre-emptive action and alternative responses to the PRC's nuclear weapons program. It notes "very and long-lasting political costs" associated with a pre-emptive strike. It also explores options, in the absence of pre-emptive action, for reducing the likelihood of proliferation as well as the potentially adverse political-psychological impact of a Chinese test on its neighbors.

It is hard to compare present day Iran to 1960s China, but it would seem that at every turn attempts to halt nuclear proliferation beyond the two original superpowers have failed. It was believed at the time that India for instance could be prevented from becoming a nuclear power, nations like Pakistan and North Korea weren’t even considered as ever acquiring the lethal technology.

The Soviet angle and the political impact prevented the elimination of Mao’s nuclear adventures; today other geo-political considerations have replaced the Cold War constraints. It prompts the conclusion that barring a miracle, Iran will become a nuclear force within the foreseeable future. Better start preparing for that.

China detonated its first bomb on October 16, 1964 in the Gobi Desert.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 11:53 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Thursday, April 13, 2006
HITCH ON IRAN

Hugh Hewitt interviews a coughing and sneezing Christopher Hitchens on Iran and Iraq. He's rational and far less alarmist about a nuclear Iran than some media voices this week.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 02:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, April 11, 2006
LET'S TALK TO THE MODERATES

Just in:

Iran has successfully enriched uranium for the first time, a major development in its quest to develop nuclear fuel, former president Hashemi Rafsanjani said Tuesday.
Remember Rafsanjani? The man the west labeled as 'moderate'? Mark Steyn provides some explanatory notes today in a comprehensive Iran piece for City Journal:
What’s the difference between a hothead and a moderate? Well, the extremist Ahmadinejad has called for Israel to be “wiped off the map,” while the moderate Rafsanjani has declared that Israel is “the most hideous occurrence in history,” which the Muslim world “will vomit out from its midst” in one blast, because “a single atomic bomb has the power to completely destroy Israel, while an Israeli counter-strike can only cause partial damage to the Islamic world.” Evidently wiping Israel off the map seems to be one of those rare points of bipartisan consensus in Tehran, the Iranian equivalent of a prescription drug plan for seniors: we’re just arguing over the details.
Read it all and place it in the context of what we know today, we have been on a learning curve so to speak.

UPDATE: Read Victor Davis Hanson's Has Ahmadinejad Miscalculated? too.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 10:15 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, April 10, 2006
ANOTHER EXECUTION IN IRAN

Although it is not entirely clear if the execution has actualy taken place, there is an online petition going to save the life of Fatemeh Haghighat-Pajouh.

More on this and similar depressing cases at Arts for Democracy.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 02:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Wednesday, February 8, 2006
NO VEIL IS REQUIRED

I recently discovered photographer Amir Normandi's photo and art blog Testing Human Rights with a special sub-page on his No is Veil Required exhibition. In the current climate probably explosive work, some of it reminiscent of Submission, yet all of it beautifully moving.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 12:00 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, January 30, 2006
IRAN ROUND-UP

Philomathean rounds-up all the news related to the Iran crisis on Mondays, his latest installment is up here.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 09:43 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Friday, January 20, 2006
PRE-EMPTING IRAN

My memory about the Reagan anniversary was actually jogged by the fact that today it also twenty-five years ago that the US hostage crisis in Iran ended. A doubly sad mark in the sand as today, a quarter of a century on, we are in an even more precarious situation when it comes to appropriately dealing with the mullahs. The ball was dropped then and no one has decisively picked it up since.

The failure of recent diplomacy to forestall the counry's nuclear adventures and the bleakness of the resulting situation have spurred a number of alternative-solution scenarios. Thomas Holsinger at Winds of Change has written a speculative, yet credible, argument that the military option is the only one that should be on the table right now. His co-blogger Joe Katzman responds and agrees, but points out that there is an insufficient amount of political capital and will to follow-through on that scenario, however inevitable it is becoming. Read both and then consider whether you want to adjust the asset mix of your retirement portfolio or liquidate the whole thing in one go.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 09:38 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Friday, November 4, 2005
GOOD NEWS FROM ROME

The Italian Wind Rose Hotel blog reports that last night a crowd of more than ten thousand turned out to demonstrate in front of the Iranian embassy. The message was clear: Israel has a right to exist rather than being "wiped off the map".

More here.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 06:15 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Wednesday, October 26, 2005
IRAN AND ISRAEL

A few weeks ago, a reader sent me a link to an article written by Judea Pearl (Daniel Pearl’s father) about anti-Zionism and why it is essentially a racist doctrine. Rather than linking it for its own sake I set it aside, only to use it today as there’s some highly relevant context following Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad call that it was time for Israel to be "wiped off the map". It wasn’t just some rhetoric to stir up the base, no, an entire conference, entitled "A World without Zionism" was dedicated to annihilating Israel. Again here’s Pearl:

As a form of racism, anti-Zionism is worse than anti-Semitism. It targets the most vulnerable part of the Jewish people, namely, the people of Israel, who rely on the sovereignty of their state for physical safety, national identity and personal dignity. To put it more bluntly, anti-Zionism condemns 5 million human beings, mostly refugees or children of refugees, to eternal statelessness, traumatized by historical images of persecution and genocide.

Anti-Zionism also attacks the pivotal component of our identity, the glue that bonds us together — our nationhood, our history. And while people of conscience reject anti-Semitism, anti-Zionist rhetoric has become a mark of academic sophistication and social acceptance in Europe and in some U.S. campuses.

And some government-sponsored conferences in Tehran it appears, underlining just how the anti-Israel forces in the West have aligned themselves with the terror masters eager to develop their own private nuclear arsenal. At the rate at which countries like Iraq, Lebanon and Syria are rapidly losing their teeth and hardline credentials it is no surprise that one country is more than willing to fill the void. And one country to take the brunt.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 08:37 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, May 24, 2005
PRESSURING FOR RESULTS

Debbye has produced a good round-up of the Kazemi affair, you can read mine here. There's still no resolution in sight, nor is the story getting the media attention it deserves. And judging from the latest iteration the propsects for the former are bleaker than ever with Iran telling Canada to back off:

"Canada's current attitude towards Iran will not lead to anything. Pressuring Iran in these kinds of affairs will not bring about any solutions."
Pressuring Iran never works. Maybe we need to take a closer look at the type of pressure that we're applying if we ever want to get some results.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 10:23 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, April 12, 2005
NO PROGRESS, AT ALL

In the Kazemi case:

Iran rejected Tuesday a Canadian demand for an international team of forensic scientists to examine the corpse of an Iranian-Canadian photojournalist who died in its custody.

"Such a demand does not conform with Iranian laws or international regulations," the spokesman for Iran's judges, Jamal Karimirad, told reporters Tuesday.

As long as Canada's foreign policy lacks teeth, progress and results will remain elusive.


Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 11:00 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Friday, April 1, 2005
CANADA'S TOUGH STANCE

It now turns out that despite the usual rhetoric Canada continued to work behind the senes with Iran on a number of issues, one of them being security:

Iran had requested that one of its officials, Seyed Abu Talib Najafi, be briefed on the workings of Canada's new Advance Passenger Information database, designed to identify potential threats to civil aircraft before they board. According to e-mails obtained under the Access to Information Act, Customs officials were concerned about the visit becoming public. One e-mail said: "We should keep this as low-key as possible.

Are we surpised that Zahra Kazemi's violent death was swept under the carpet in both Canada and Iran? In the end the security briefing did not take place because of the North American black-out. Instead a senior official of the Canada Border Services Agency, took Najafi across the street for a coffee:

In a report sent afterwards to Foreign Affairs, she writes, "He showed interest in Advanced Passenger Information." She adds: "He was pleased that I took the time to meet him."
I bet he was.


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Thursday, March 31, 2005
THE KAZEMI AFFAIR CONTINUES

Remember the death of Zahra Kazemi, the Canadian-Iranian photojournlaist who was beaten to death in Iran after being arrested for taking photos of a protest outside a prison? The trial was a farce, her body was never exhumed for an autopsy and Canadian authorities never pursued the case further or so it seemed. That changed today when Sharham Azam, a former doctor with the Iranian Ministry of Defence who happened to be at the hospital where Zahra was taken, detailed the injuries she suffered at a press conference in Ottawa.

From the outset it was abundantly clear she didn't die of bruises to her head after her hungerstrike had caused her to fall as Iranian authorities claimed, a beating to the head at the hands of intelligence officers was more likely. The ordeal Dr. Azam described today however is far more gruesome:

He said he catalogued countless injuries on the woman, who arrived at the hospital unconscious. He said the broken bones, bruising and marks suggested she had been beaten, tortured and raped, with the wounds suggested the assaults had taken place over a period of time.

As a result of this it seems Canada's foreign minister has vowed to renew his efforts:

“This new evidence only strengthens our position and confirms that this was not an accident. It does not change our position. Quite the contrary. The family wants answers. Canadians want answers, and we will be pursuing this until justice is done.”

This is exactly the same position the government took shortly after Zahra's death and to date there have been no tangible results to validate that apporach, quite the contrary. The conservative opposition in Canada wasted no time to come up with some concrete action points:

Mr. Day urged Ottawa to pull Canada's ambassador to Iran, demand the return of Ms. Kazemi's body to her family and agree to a new trial, with an international presence involved in the proceedings.

Bringing the guilty to justice in cases like this is next to impossible as in reality it would mean bringing down the entire theocracy in Iran. The Canadian government faces an uphill struggle in seeking justice, but that doesn't mean it can't be done. Some drastic measures including the involvement of the international court of justice (think Lockerbie) could be a first step, but it requires will and spending political capital, both of which are in short supply in Canada's capital these days.

NOTE: Zahra Kazemi while holding a Canadian passport was also Iranian and the color of her skin may have something to do with the less than zealous approach by Canadian authorities, an argument often heard during the recent Air India trial and eloquently debunked by David Fum:

The outraged families of the victimes ask whether Ottawa would have shown equal carelessness had the victims been predominantly white rather than predominantly of subcontinental origin. On this one point, Canada's record since 9/11 should set the survivors' minds at ease: Yes, the Canadian government would have been just as careless.

Somehow I think that Frum's comment is equally applicable to the Kazemi case.

UPDATE: A reader comments:

Canada has a problem protecting it's citizens abroad because what lever would it use? It is fine to have a pacifist foreign policy; but it leaves you little option when you or your citizens are attacked. I doubt Iran will be anymore moved by Canada's pleading then it is by Europe's attempt to bribe it into compliance on the nuclear issues. So what is left the UN? Good luck. It is to late to protect Kazemi; it is not however to late to think about how valuable it is to be a free Canadian.



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Thursday, November 18, 2004
POWELL, IRAN, NUKES

Sooner than expected: Colin Powell is arguing that Iran is now on track to have nuclear weapons ready by next year.

Question: Is his credibility after the Iraq-WMD fiasco sufficiently intact to convince the world that we now have a real problem on our hands?

Answer: To many, probably not.

Question: But would you still accept his comments and agree that Iran is an issue that needs to be dealt with immediately?

Answer: Yes.

Question: Why?

Answer: Because (a) it is extremely unlikely that on the eve of his departure Powell would come out with an argument based on shaky intelligence and thus make the same mistake twice (place in history and all that), and (b) it's too late in the game to take any risks and err on the side of caution.

Conclusion: Faster, please.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 08:54 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Wednesday, October 6, 2004
NUCLEAR MOVES

The evidence of Iran’s nuclear progress is piling up, and it will be after the November election before the US government will move. Cheney mapped it out yesterday:

We recently were actively involved in a meeting with the board of governors in the International Atomic Energy Agency. And as I say, there will be a follow-up meeting in November to determine whether or not Iran's living up to their commitments and obligations. And if they aren't, my guess is then the board of governors will recommend sending the whole matter to the U.N. Security Council for the application of the international sanctions, which I think would be exactly the right way to go.

Referring the matter to the UN Security Council would be an important first step, and highlights the priority that the IAEA and the Bush team are attaching to the issue. I will suspend my skepticism and give the effort the benefit of the doubt. As one reader put it to me last week, politics is the art of the possible and campaigning on pre-emptively attacking Iran is just not feasible at this point in time. It’s not as fast as Michael Ledeen would like but there’s some momentum building which may accelerate after November 2.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 12:24 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, July 26, 2004
IRAN, 9/11 AND PAYING ATTENTION

We should have been paying more attention. That’s in a nutshell what the 9/11 Report told us. As early as 1995 many pundits initially pointed to Islamists as the likely culprits in the Oklahoma City bombings. At that point in time we were apparently already quite aware of them, the threat they posed and their willingness to strike in the American heartland, targeting civilians. Between that point in time and 9/11 we saw a proliferation of terror from various Islamist groups and notably al-Qaeda, in particular the attacks on the US embassies in East Africa and the USS Cole, but still we failed to act. Now we’re acting but as we are doing so it looks like we are again failing to pay attention to an even more lethal threat that a conventional al-Qaeda: a nuclear Iran.

And it’s not that the warning signs aren’t there. To remind us Michael Ledeen, Charles Krauthammer, Andrew Sullivan, David Warren, Danielle Pletka and I am sure many others last week reiterated the abject failure of a policy of constructive engagement which the US, which to a large extent has been relying on European nations and the IAEA to do the work, has been pursuing. It is apparent that these attempts have been futile and have not accomplished the goal of neutralizing Iran, on the contrary. Engaging totalitarian entities is a complex task on any given day, but when regimes like the one in Iran are in a flux it becomes an even more unpredictable exercise. As long as the hard-liners have the upper hand over the reformers in the domestic struggle, which is what it seems like in Tehran today, they will invariably legitimize their position by becoming even more radical and forcing fearful doubters to follow suit. Such radicalization can take many forms and can range from extreme prosecution of dissidents to aiding terrorists to justifying their historic mission by arming the county to the fullest extent possible. Whatever form it takes, there’s a two-tiered outcome. On the domestic side forces for freedom will suffer even harder repression and externally there will be an intensification of staking out the key enemy: the free world, or to be more specific, the USA and its few remaining allies.

The bottom line is that we can’t sit idly by the side gambling on the reformers at some point getting the upper hand or even riskier, hoping that engaging a few reasonable hardliners will save the day. Krauthammer is especially clear in where we should be headed, sponsor a revolution or act pre-emptively noting that we can’t really expect Israel to do all of the dirty work. Strong meat sure, but it highlights the need to move fast. Before any meaningful action can be initiated however there needs to be awareness, especially on the part of the Bush administration, that Iran is on the radar screen. I agree, bombing Tehran is not the wisest way to kick-off a re-election campaign but the President should at the very least be able to communicate to the electorate that this time he is paying attention.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 12:24 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, July 19, 2004
UNJUSTICE

The trial of the murderers of Iranian-Canadian photojournalist Zarah Kazemi has ended abruptly and forced the Canadian foreign ministry to now make good on its threat to recall its Ambassador to Tehran back to Ottawa:

After foreign observers were initially barred, several, including Canadian ambassador Philip MacKinnon and other diplomats, were allowed to attend the session. On Sunday, however, they were blocked from entering the courtroom and the trial was abruptly ended, with the court saying it would issue a verdict at an unspecified later date.

Disappointing but not surprising, and there’s a likely cover-up with Tehran prosecutor Mortazavi playing a duplicitous role:

The Canadian government has also raised the prospect of Mr. Mortazavi's involvement, and reformists have accused him of a coverup. The bill of indictment, which has cleared Mr. Bakhshi of any wrongdoing and implicated Mr. Ahmadi in the murder, was prepared by the hardline Tehran Prosecutor's Office.

Crimes like this will not get resolved until Iran’s hardline mullahs are forced out of power, until then the involved parties are not likely to see justice.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 01:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Thursday, July 15, 2004
TOUGH DIPLOMACY?

This week it’s exactly a year ago that Canadian photographer Zahra Kazemi was beaten to death in an Iranian jail after she was arrested for taking photos outside a prison where a demonstration was taking place. Apparently the trial of those who committed this heinous act is now underway, although I have earlier expressed my serious doubts about who exactly is standing trial, those with direct responsibility are more than likely to escape justice. The Iranian government will sentence some pitiful underlings behind closed doors and that will be it.

From the very start this affair has been marred by the inexplicable lack of effort by the Canadian government to see that the Kazemi’s family interests were looked after properly. This attitude has generated a lot of criticism and not to long ago her son expressed his deep disappointment over this. Now that foreign monitors have been barred from attending the trial Canada’s foreign minister has finally stepped up to the plate and recalled the country’s ambassador to Tehran. Bob Tarantino comments that this move no doubt has the leadership in Tehran trembling, and he’s right as it reminds me so much of my native Holland issuing hilarious “stern warnings” to China over human rights abuses. Tough diplomacy, if you can call it that, has no effect whatsoever. You can only hit a regime where it hurts and that’s in the wallet, but I doubt if Canada is really prepared to tear up some lucrative deals with Iran for the sake of one dead photographer.

UPDATE: Marzi has some interesting comments as to why sanctions would be highly unlikely...

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Monday, January 12, 2004
IRAN UPDATE

Two disturbing news items, no doubt related: hardliners seem to be getting the upper-hand in Tehran in what is deemed to be a bloodless coup and any potential of the US and Iran improving relations has been quashed. I have not spend any time on Iran lately but I think there are many other bloggers that do an excellent job here, Free Iran News, a sort of web central for the democracy in Iran movement is not only a good source of day-to-day news updates as well as analysis, it also has a list of bloggers that support the case of freedom in Iran. You’ll find many good Iran blogs right there.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 04:20 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, September 29, 2003
NUCLEAR IRAN

Interesting piece by David Warren over the weekend dealing with Iran. His basic point: the political capital used to invade Iraq, and the depletion of more of that capital to deflect ongoing criticism of the President and his approach to terror and rogue nations, may result in some reluctance to build a similar case that will seek to disarm Iran.

My sense is that neither the Bush administration nor any other has, after the international response before, during and after the invasion of Iraq, any stomach left for serious brinkmanship; and that U.S. domestic politics have also enquagmired President Bush. I am fairly certain that, at least, this is the Iranian (and the North Korean) view.

We may yet find out what’s left of Bush’s stomach, but the nuclear adventures undertaken in Iran should be taken very seriously. Saddam’s weapon development programs pale in comparison to the progress made by the terror masters in Tehran, and the latest reaction from Iranian authorities are further evidence that any form of co-operation or compliance from their side will probably not be forthcoming. Warren is right, they will gamble that the focus on Iraq and US domestic issues has provided them with a unique window to ignore whatever is being required in an international context and continue to build their nuclear capability.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 12:09 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, August 26, 2003
THE KAZEMI CASE: CONTINUED

The Iranian government has arrested and charged two persons directly responsible for the violent death of Canadian photojournalist Zarah Kazemi in Iran two months ago. The two have been charged with “semi-intentional murder”, which no doubt will serve as an escape clause to avoid any severe sentencing. My jaw dropped when I read who they were – somehow expecting bearded revolutionary guards - :

“The two accused were reported yesterday to be low-level medical workers, both female. The unidentified pair -- one is a nurse, the other a personal caregiver …”

The problem is that these two may well be scapegoats that were somehow involved, delivered in order to placate the international community while those ultimately responsible escape justice. This is not dissimilar to the way in which Libya offered up two secret service agents in the Lockerbie case in order to avoid any serious long-term economic and political consequences. The Kazemi case is once more proof that there are very little, if any, protections in place for those who come in harm's way when traveling abroad and the legal aftermath usually adds insult to injury for the relatives left behind.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 04:56 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, August 25, 2003
PROJECT FREE IRAN

The Project Free Iran website has undergone some further changes and is updated regularly with the latest on Iran. They also have a list of bloggers that support freedom in Iran with a lot of interesting links, go have a look.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 02:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Wednesday, July 23, 2003
FINALLY: PRESSURE ON IRAN

The Zahra Kazemi case has not drifted away from the front pages as the Canadian government is stepping up pressure on the Iranian government announcing today it recalled its ambassador and is even willing to reconsider its economic relations with Iran. The demands are simple and clear: return Zahra’s remains to Canada and bring to justice those directly responsible for her death. These are definitely steps in the right direction but it is totally unclear as to why it has taken this long for Canadian Foreign Minister Graham to apply this level of pressure on Iranian officials. The seriousness of what happened should have triggered an immediate reaction two weeks ago; again someone carrying a Canadian passport was beaten to death while in custody. The reactive rather than proactive approach must be exasperating for the family of Zahra. In fact, it should be of concern to anyone carrying a Canadian passport and traveling outside the country, wondering to what extent diplomatic support is available in circumstances like this. As mentioned before, we should not just be monitoring Iran's actions in this case, Canada' approach should be under equal scrutiny.

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Wednesday, July 16, 2003
ZAHRA KAZEMI'S DEATH AND PRESSURE ON IRAN

Today the Iranian leadership confirmed that Zahra Kazemi has died as the result of a brain hemorrhage from beatings she suffered after she was arrested. The fact that she died as the result of abuse is not a surprise, very few were in doubt about the circumstances under which she died. The fact that the Iranian government is now admitting to this should also be viewed with suspicion. To date they have been extremely uncooperative, they are clearly responsible and it is very likely that they will shift the blame for this onto some lower level officials in an effort to stay clear of the negative fall-out and to appease those who have protested the arrest and death of Zahra. We should note that the international community and all those that support freedom and democracy in Iran should pay equal attention and apply an equivalent amount of pressure on the Canadian government in order to ensure that they will do all they can to not only address this particular case, but to ensure that they will also step up their efforts to seriously support those that struggle for freedom in Iran. That effort is apparent well underway:

And in Canada, MPs and Iranian-Canadian groups are demanding that the Canadian government take a more forceful approach with Iran on the issue, both for a transparent inquiry into Ms. Kazemi's death and for her body to be returned to Canada.

In relation to that I received an e-mail from Activistchat.com, a website dedicated to freedom in Iran, who are asking to assist in applying pressure on both the Iranian government and the international community in actions that:

“ …align with the will of the Iranian people and the current movement for greater freedoms”

I encourage you to visit their site, there’s lots of information on Iran and recent events as well as a petition addressed to world leaders that you can sign.

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Saturday, July 12, 2003
ZAHRA KAZEMI DIES

Zahra Kazemi has been taken off life support and is now confirmed dead. May she rest in peace and may the international community do everything it can to bring those guilty to justice.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 03:29 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


THE CASE OF ZAHRA KAZEMI

There were some earlier reports on this, but now it is confirmed that Zahra Kazemi, a Montreal-based photojournalist is brain-dead following injuries sustained after she was arrested by Iranian authorities a few weeks ago. She was apparently detained after taking photos of a prison in northern Tehran where students were taken last month following their arrest during protests. While born in Iran she carried a Canadian passport and the Canadian authorities have taken up her case at the highest levels but you do have to wonder why comments like these are made:

''We do not want to conclude that she was beaten up,'' said Reynald Doiron, a Foreign Affairs spokesman. ''The official reply by the Iranians as well as a full, unrestricted medical examination of her situation will determine the cause. Is it a blood clot; is it high blood pressure, lack of taking medication? Or has she been roughed up a bit? We don't know.''

If you don’t know, you find out. To suggest that she may have been “been roughed up a bit” is an utterly tactless choice of words. Keep quiet and do something. Someone has been beaten into a coma in an Iranian prison and even in the remote case that she lost consciousness because of any other reasons, Iranian authorities continue to be culpable as they were the ones that captured her. My thoughts go out to Zahra, her family and all the others in Iran who have to suffer this brutal regime.

Update: here's the The Globe and Mail on the same topic.

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Wednesday, July 9, 2003
DEMOCRACY AND EXPECTATIONS

Today is July 9 the day of the 1999 student uprising in Iran, which we are commemorating today. A little while back Andrew called upon the blogosphere to campaign massively in support of those that stand up to the tyrants that rule Iran and I will gladly throw my support behind this effort. His initiative also seeks to get the issue of democracy in Iran on the front pages of traditional media as many media outlets seriously underreported the protests that took place a number of weeks ago. The same can be said for the protests in Hong Kong; media attention was certainly there but pales when compared to the magnitude of events that took place in the former British colony.

The news from Tehran today it seems warrants extensive front-page reporting. There are many blogs that do a much better job in discussing Iran and linking to the numerous Iranian bloggers that cover events in their home country so for that I will refer you to Jeff Jarvis and his BuzzMachine, just scroll down for excellent and comprehensive Iran reporting. The most venerable proponent for pro-active and decisive support for democratic change in Iran is of course Michael Ledeen, here is his July 9 piece.

On a more general note, the process of defeating dictatorships and establishing free, democratic and open societies always unfolds in a most unexpected way and the idea that following the events in Iraq and the demonstrations in Iran things will turn around is overly optimistic. The way in which Hong Kong people this week stood up to heavy-handed legislation was something very few had expected and while this was a spectacular development that some even deemed to be a ‘velvet revolution’, a reverse scenario is equally possible as the case of Myanmar shows us. When a number of years ago elections took place in Myanmar there was good hope that the years of dictatorship were over and even after the military junta fed the election results through the shedder many believed that given Aung San Suu Kyi's presence in the country as well as international pressure it would only be a matter of time before the military rulers would step back and let the democratic process take its course. Today however things in Myanmar are even worse then a few years ago with Aung San Suu Kyi captured and many of her group of activists arrested, detained, tortured or killed. The same holds true for Vietnam where economic reforms and a relaxation of party rule seemed to turn the country around during the 1990s but that process has stalled and the country's Communist Party is as strong as ever.

Different countries in one region can move to democracy at different speeds, and major progress towards democracy can come in many unexpected ways. While we strongly support and hope the best for freedom in Iran, we should be careful with our expectation level.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 09:55 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, June 17, 2003
DEMOCRACY IN IRAN WEEK

I do not normally link to Andrew two days in a row, but he has got a great initiative:

Here's my proposal. On July 9, as many blogs as possible focus on the struggle for freedom in Iran. It's the anniversary of the pro-democracy protests that have been going on for years. I'll devote the week after July 4 to this issue, culminating in July 9.

Peaktalk has been meaning to focus on Iran, but there just have been too many other developments worth covering. But, to make up for that: more Iran on this site leading up to July 9, and probably after that as well.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 10:31 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Monday, May 12, 2003
NUCLEAR IRAN

Whatever we do mitigating the North Korean situation (see below), we may want to use the lessons learned and apply them to the situation in Iran, to the extent that is possible. Michael Ledeen today points to the progress that the ayatollahs have made so far in developing their nuclear ability and that we should now focus on fostering democracy in Iran as a matter of urgency.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 03:37 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, April 22, 2003
EXPLOITING THE SHIITES

The Shiite rallies in Iraq over the past few days point to a very disconcerting reality as Michael Ledeen today reports. I have linked to Ledeen a number of times because I think he usually presents some excellent analysis on terror and its origins in the Middle East and has been trying to alert the world that the staunchest terror masters reside in Tehran. His analysis today clearly points to the fact that we have to fear those who will ruthlessly exploit the current situation in Iraq rather than the Arab Street which has been relatively quiet so far. It is a sad irony that the newfound freedom that the Shiites now enjoy is already being abused to further the interests of the ayatollahs. Like Syria, the case needs to be made for regime change in Iran without using any direct military force, for some background I outlined the various options available to us to deal with both Syria and Iran earlier. Supporting the democratic movement in Iran is the first and most obvious step in that direction.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 04:09 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)


Tuesday, March 4, 2003
WAR SUPPORT: THE GENERATION GAP

There is a lot of behind closed doors negotiation going on with regards to the next UN resolution while the military build-up continues. We are in waiting mode. A good moment to look at some interesting numbers that Time Magazine published last week (I usually get around to read stuff like this only a week after it has rolled into my mailbox). While a majority in the U.S. clearly supports the use of military force to remove Saddam it is very interesting to see that the younger generation (ages 18 to 29) supports the war effort by a solid 63% while of the older group (age 65 and over) only 40% supports a direct attempt to remove Saddam.

It is not a complete surprise as these numbers have been floating around for a while and in my weekly conversations with my retired father I detect similar sentiments. Why ? Is this not the generation that lived through World War II and saw the brutal excesses of totalitarian despotism with their own eyes or have these experiences shaped them in such a way that they never want to see war again ? It may also be that the Vietnam War has shaped their thinking and that they have become overly conservative in giving the nod to the use of military force. Or maybe they want to live the remainng years of their lives in a world where war has no chance of affecting the lives of their children and grandchildren. It is probably a combination of all, in any case Charlotte Beers has her work cut out for her.

What is encouraging though is that the younger generation is behind the plans to go to war. I will revisit this issue in the weeks to come as I feel it is an important one and it merits further discussion.

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