My column with some video is up at PJM here.

Bruce Bawer's column, Europe's Champion of Liberty, is here.

UPDATE: For the Dutch-speaking contingent, here is an interview with Fortuyn recorded five years after his death. It is both amazing and accurate. Of course, these sort of recordings reflect the 'what if' and 'we miss him' sentiments, which are still very present in Dutch society.

A survey on national freedom and security conducted by the National Committee 4 and 5 May (referring to the dates the Dutch remember the death and celebrate the end of Nazi occupation respectively) has revealed what many have speculated about for a while. The Dutch feel that their much vaunted freedom is under pressure:

Freedom is seen as an important value to Dutch democracy. Residents value the freedom of speech particularly highly, the survey showed.

Respondents felt this freedom was certainly under pressure: almost 40 percent said that you cannot always freely express your opinion, especially in the debate on the multicultural society, respondents said.

"Evidently this debate has become so polarised that people feel they cannot always say what they like," the report reads.

And this reflects individuals responding, more crucially it would be interesting to see the numbers - much harder to get no doubt - that inidicate to what extent self-censorship has permeated the media.

Quite revealing and also highly indicative of the overall mood is the fact that the survey reports that the Dutch would be quite willing to trade freedom for security. And how can we interpret this finding? Give the government blanket authority to fight terror, no matter what the cost? Or is this evidence of an omnipresent willingness to stay quiet in order to preserve the peace? Whatever the answer, it says an awful lot of how much importance the Dutch really attach to their freedom. In my mind, it is under pressure from more sides than just one.

As opposed to “Give me your tired, your poor” many jurisdictions in the new world have discovered that the disgruntled Dutch are anything but tired and poor. They’re young, affluent, well-educated, entrepreneurial, fluent in English and smart enough to have figured that the time has come to get out as the future can no longer be found at home.

My latest column is up over at Pajamas Media, read the rest here.

There was another Dutch election yesterday, the provinical one to be precise. Although quite important as the 'provincial states' elect the Dutch Senate or upper house, the turn-out for these events is usually quite low and yesterday's was no exception. The results were not shocking and reflected the trend set during the general election last November:

The coalition parties managed to hold on to their majority in the senate, despite a loss for the Labour PvdA and Christian democrat CDA in yesterday's elections for the provincial states.

Thanks to a gain of two seats for the ChristenUnie, the government coalition can count on 41 of the 75 seats in the new senate.

As in the general elections in November, the big winner in Thursday's elections was the Socialist Party (SP). Jan Marijnissen's party has tripled the number of seats it will hold in the senate, from 4 to 12 seats. After its debut in the lower house of Parliament in November last year, the Party for the Animals has also secured a seat in the senate now.

Noteworthy is the fact that Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom did not participate in this election. Opinion polls indicated he could have done quite well had he participated following the recent political fireworks over cabinet members' dual nationality.

Was sworn in by the Queen today. The new left-of-center coalition ends four turbulent years where the Dutch were governed from the right. Yet, there are no indications that the turbulence is over, so expect regular updates.

Next week a new Dutch left-of-center coalition government will formally be inaugurated, ending a period characterized by instability and sometimes deep political and social rifts. I am working on a longer piece trying to condense all developments into one coherent narrative, trying to figure out if the Dutch are now entering into calmer waters. Somehow I doubt it.

The changeover is best captured by the fact that the immigration portfolio loses its ministerial status and will now be handled by a deputy minister or a State Secretary as the Dutch call it. That means a farewell to controversial Rita Verdonk whose sometimes draconian policies went as far as laying the groundwork for the early departure of her fellow party member Ayaan Hirsi Ali. This highly charged portfolio will now go Nebahat Albayrak, a member of parliament for Labour and a daughter of Turkish immigrants.

Albayrak found herself in the middle of some political fireworks yesterday when questions were raised about her and other deputy minister candidate Ahmed Aboutaleb’s loyalty as dual passport holders. A motion that sought to bar both candidates from joining the new cabinet did not make it to the parliamentary floor, but the discussion underlines once more the contentious nature of immigration in the Dutch political landscape.

Albayrak in the meantime made it clear how she will deal with her portfolio by arguing that the way her predecessor handled the immigration file often lacked a “human approach”, but that she would apply the letter of the law:

“People that are allowed to stay have to integrate fast, people that have to leave, will have to leave the country fast”

And that does not appear to be all that different from Verdonk’s approach.

Watch the videos here and here.

It's weird in a sense to see the Hirsi Ali avalanche and the excited media reactions to it, but for the Dutch and those who have been following her amazing journey it is hardly new. What also strikes me as noteworthy is the fairly superficial way in which Hirsi Ali is questioned by various media outlets, it is all about her departure from Islam and her present security situation. There is a lot more that warrants some critical examination from the press - and I mean this in a positive way - so that North American audiences can get a better handle on what Hirsi Ali actually experienced in both her native and adopted homelands. There is lots in the Peaktalk vaults about this, the entire collection is here, but given the appetite everyone has for this subject I would like to highlight in particular:

The questions that were raised in the Dutch press about the likelihood that security arrangements around Hirsi Ali were in actual fact being used to put her in political isolation.

Her farewell speech after resigning from Dutch parliament.

The political hit job by some media and rival politicians which triggered her inevitable departure from The Netherlands;

Her relationship with Theo van Gogh and how attempts to wage a debate over Islam in The Netherlands encountered many roadblocks.

Ayaan's dismissal from The Netherlands was most likely prompted first by the disgraceful way in which some of her neighbors managed to evict her from her appartment by successfully suing the flat's owners.

And the note that propelled AEI's rising star to international fame: Al-Zarqawi on Clogs.

That's original content from this site, but you may also want to take a look at Christopher Hitchens' Holland's Shameful Treatment of Ayaan Hirsi Ali and her meeting with George Will where the term 'Europe, the invertebrate' was coined.

The Dutch are not increasingly secular according to this interesting piece from Joshua Livestro in the Weekly Standard, rather secularization in the lowlands peaked in the 1990s and faith is making a steady comeback, albeit in a different format:

Apart from being a herald of potential change from secular to post-secular society, youth churches are also an indicator of another significant development, namely the move away from the church of bricks and mortar to a less clearly recognizable, more informal setting. Youth churches seem to meet anywhere but in traditional church buildings: cultural centers, sports halls, school assembly rooms, parking lots, even in night clubs. The idea is that something that less resembles a traditional church might prove more welcoming to potential new believers.

[ … ]

The question, though, is whether Christianity is best placed to profit from this development. For better or for worse, Dutch Christianity is now largely an underground phenomenon. If an average Dutchman has any picture of Christianity, it is of empty pews and derelict church buildings.

As with the impending demographic bust, the jury is still out on this particular phenomenon and it may be a while before we can confidently claim that secularization was a late 20th century fluke.

There are however a number of remarkable indicators that God is not exactly ‘out’. As Livestro notes, for all the Muslim immigrants arriving in The Netherlands there is also a significant Christian influx - think of the droves of Catholic Poles for instance – that contribute to this phenomenon. Furthermore, during the last general election, the parties with a Christian background did surprisingly well, the small Christian Union will for the first time in its history form part of a coalition government. And lastly, I do think there is a natural tendency in atheist and individualistic western societies to somehow re-connect with spirituality and community. The question of course is if that urge is channeled in the right direction as I can think of many other houses of worship that would make continued secularization a far more preferable option.

Islam however is according to Livestro not all that well-positioned:

Even the most optimistic estimates of Dutch Muslim organizations put the number of converts to Islam at no more than a few hundred a year. With immigration from Islamic countries grinding to a halt and birth rates among the Muslim community further approximating average Dutch birthrates with each new generation, it seems unlikely to say the least that visions of a caliphate in Holland will come to pass in this century--or the next, for that matter.

Speculation of course, but the notion that birth rates will overtime fall into line with the local breeding rate – often a function of economics – is correct as noted here and here before.

The centre-left coalition consisting of Christian-Democrats, Labour and the Christian Union is almost there, but a number of issues need to be ironed out:

Labour PvdA leader Wouter Bos is expected to be appointed finance minister and deputy prime minister in the new coalition cabinet despite the fact he has not yet made a decision.

[ ... ]

Bos said in the election campaign that he would not serve as deputy prime minister under Christian Democrat CDA leader Jan Peter Balkenende. But he started refusing to answer such questions just days after the November election.

It is an old trick to let someone from the left manage the books as it facilitates an encounter of spending instincts with fiscal realities. It has worked before. Bos, who was state secretary at finance before, is shrewd enough to take on this portfolio, but also clever enough to understand that it may eventually alienate him from his base on the left. Developing.

Iron Rita is on her way out, but she is making a sure that there is more than enough to talk about after her departure:

The Netherlands needs to wake up and take action to reduce rising ethnic tension between different groups of youths, a senior government advisor warned on Wednesday. Dick Corporaal, charged with monitoring youth flash-points by integration minister Rita Verdonk, said that if the country is not careful, things could get out of control.

‘We will have a situation like France,’ he told NOS radio, referring to riots in the Paris suburbs last year.

Those who remember the 'root cause' debate after the torching of the banlieues will recall that it was often the moribund French economy that got the blame for failing to absorb the rioting youngsters into its workforce. This Dutch government advisory report seems to indicate that even in a very different and more flexible economy first and second generation immigrants may revert to the same kind behaviour as in France. So maybe we should look beyond purely economic indicators to explain car torching? Religion anyone? What is also somewhat alarming is the notion of violence "between different groups of youths" whereas in France it was as I recall just youth vs. police.

Still, the more disturbing piece of this report was not the above, but this:

Later in the day, Verdonk said the Netherlands needs a Minister for Youth to coordinate activities and ‘make sure something actually happens.’ Divisions between various ministries must be broken down and cooperation improved, she said. Seven ministries are currently responsible for different aspects of youth policy.

Which makes you wonder how much potential rioting can actually be neutralized if some sort of efficient bureaucracy was actually dealing with this issue in a pro-active manner.

Another Dutch crisis. To recap:

• The Dutch government fell in June over the Hirsi Ali affair, which prompted fresh general elections;

• This implied that the sitting cabinet under prime minister Balkenende was formally demissionair or 'without a mission’ which means it was reduced to being a caretaker government;

• On November 22 a new election took place, where the Balkenende government failed to get a majority, however it continued acting in its caretaker capacity until a new coalition government would be formed;

• One week after the election the new parliament (with a marginal majority for the left-of-center parties) was inaugurated and as its first point of action adopted a motion calling on Immigration Minister Verdonk to suspend her deportations of illegal aliens;

• Verdonk refused arguing that executing the motion represented a major policy shift that would have to wait until a new coalition would have taken over affairs from the caretaker government.

• The opposition then forced through a motion which essentially demanded Verdonk to resign, one which was again denied by the Balkenende caretaker team.

The last point created an unprecedented crisis, in which both sides initially refused to budge. To Michael van der Galien this affair underlined the descent of his beloved home country into a banana republic; I would be a bit milder and term it a constitutional crisis.

Last night, after a long negotiation a compromise was reached where certain deportations are halted and where Verdonk was forced to give up the immigration part of her portfolio for the remaining months she is in office. In offering up that part of her responsibilities she signaled her disagreement with being forced to carry out a motion that negated her own policies.

Since there was no historical precedent it came down to balancing Verdonk’s correct argument about being unable to fundamentally shift a policy based on her own caretaker status against the moral imperative of a parliamentary majority. The latter won and many illegal immigrants who had exhausted - and lost – all legally available procedures can now stay for likely an indefinite period. Critics have argued that this reversal will open the door to many other illegal aliens and that the new majority on the left has acted a little overzealously in making a political point while failing to oversee its long-term implications. That sentiment is correct and that is why Balkenende probably tried to support Verdonk for as long as he could.

The more salient part of course is that Balkenende was engaged by an opposition with whom he will have to form a new coalition to replace his own right-of-center coalition. The recent election result gives him no other option, but this affair will not have exactly created a lot of good faith between the parties that will have to govern the Dutch nation going forward.

And Verdonk? Her hardline ‘rules are rules’ – remember how she also vigorously applied them to Hirsi Ali - has made her a highly controversial politician. Yet, her un-Dutch principled stance has attracted votes; at the last election she even outpolled the leader of her own party by a significant margin.

The Dutch have in recent years indicated that they’re more than willing to gamble on a no-nonsense anti-establishment politician and Iron Rita may well capitalize on that sentiment down the road. Given the current atmosphere I would not rule out another early election and bruising Rita is far too ambitious to let such a good opportunity pass. If only to rehabilitate herself, and her policies.

Yes, I owe you a Dutch politics update. The outcome of last month's election was less than appealing from the perspective of forming a workable coalition government, but it appears the first hurdle has been taken:

The Socialist SP, the big winners from last month's elections, dropped out of talks to form a new coalition government on Thursday.

[ ... ]

" ... it had become clear in recent days that the differences between the CDA and SP were "numerous, serious and on some points, fundamental".

No surprises here, but the pressure will now be on Labour to negotiate a deal with the CDA that will please their supporters. Any perceived sell-out will strengthen the Socialist Party's hand further and result in the left further drifting away from the center.

Still, I expect a lengthy negotiation effort (Labour and CDA will need a small party to obtain a parliamentary majority) that could easily collapse and lead to yet another election.

Ayaan Hirsi’s tainted relationship with her adoptive homeland. The latest:

The [Dutch] cabinet has denied that it put Ayaan Hirsi Ali in political isolation following the terrorist murder of Theo van Gogh. Justice Minister Ernst Hirsch Ballin rejects suggestions that Hirsi Ali was sent to the US to prevent her unleashing more Islamic violence with her sharp tongue.

Columnists Afshin Ellian and Leon de Winter wrote in an article in newspaper De Volkskrant in October that the government decided to send Hirsi Ali temporarily to the US following the 2 November 2004 murder of her friend and filmmaker Van Gogh. A Muslim cut his throat on the street in Amsterdam and on his body, stuck a knife with a letter saying Hirsi Ali would be the next victim.

In her biography – English version to be released in February 2007 – Ayaan Hirsi Ali devotes some twenty-four pages to her bizarre adventures following Van Gogh’s murder. The Dutch security services arranged, as a precautionary measure, for her to disappear from the public scene, which resulted in two separate overseas stays in the northeastern US and a brief sojourn in Germany. The levels of security as well as the various actions of the justice apparatus appeared to be overzealous and at times even illogical.

Hirsi Ali describes that initially she was barred from phone and internet access, allegedly to avoid her being tracked down by would-be assassins. A curious approach as I can’t imagine any jihadist monitoring internet activity would instantly conclude that someone googling ‘Van Gogh murder’ in a Best Western in Portland, Maine would pinpoint that as the secret location of the infamous Dutch parliamentarian of Somali descent. At the same time her security detail went to the extreme lengths to avoid her being recognized, but when a Turkish hotel proprietor in Germany identified her correctly as that Dutch-Somali parliamentarian “whose friend had been murdered” Ayaan was told it was late, not that big a deal and asked to stay in the said hotel where she consequently spent a restless night.

It is beyond the scope of this post to summarize the whole two month adventure, but in view of the news above and what Hirsi Ali says in her book, I believe the claim that she was ‘neutralized’ in the immediate aftermath of the Van Gogh murder is credible. What is also evident to me is that this was not a deliberate move by Dutch authorities, but that its potential became evident during the process of securing Hirsi Ali. She was moved around a lot the first few days and security levels went up steadily, while at the same time the reactions to the murder in Dutch society accelerated to levels where the outcome was increasingly unpredictable. The Dutch government had an obligation to protect Hirsi Ali, but in doing so realized it had the perfect means to silence her too. And surely, that is something that will never be formally acknowledged.

Hirsi Ali herself won’t speak out on this either, and for good reasons by the way. Although she has moved to the Washington, DC area, her security is still partly provided by the Dutch government and it would be rather counterproductive and ungrateful to question their work based on what essentially is a theory of some of her friends. That by the way should also be taken to heart by journalists who can’t resist asking her about her security. Hirsi Ali can’t and won’t answer these questions not because she needs to remain tactful towards her minders, but because her life remains on the line for as long as she lives.

After reading the Dutch emigration update, a reader wonders:

" ... the overarching question, however, remains unasked and therefore unanswered. Why? In my lengthy experience in the Netherlands and with the Dutch, I can honestly state that I have never met a more family-orientated culture or a more nationalistic (this is not intended to be a negative in any way) society. Families are close in The Netherlands, closer than they have probably ever been in the United States. I have seen friends suffer great distress when a family member moves beyond walking distance, a local bus ride or a short drive. There is something in the Netherlands that has revived that wanderlust in the Dutch that I had thought (until very recently) died along with Stuyvesant. I would be very interested to know what it is.

I don't think Dutch wanderlust ever died, it has been reignited. And there is not just one reason for that, although the deteriorating quality of life which encomapsses everything for immgirants to crime to environment is probably the most important one. The key accelerator is - much like the 17th century - globalization and wealth.

The Dutch economy has by necessity always been focused on trade and cross-border services. The vast growth of opportunities in an open Europe and a booming Asia - a familiar arena for the Dutch - have made overseas settlement much easier. And, as opposed to Stuyvesant's age, this is no longer the privilege of the upper class. The Dutch with their strong work ethic and broad language skills are a natural fit for the international job market. And, wealth has trickled down the classes too, buying property overseas or just taking the gamble by packing up and go is no longer that disruptive, at least from a financial perspective. The strong family ties and the generous welfare arrangments back home serve as a tangible insurance policy on which any adventurer can always fall back. I have seen many take advantage of it when the going overseas got a little too tough.

Well, here is the hallmark of a free society. If the government plans to outlaw your habitual garb, you can protest it:

About two dozen Muslim women protested Thursday outside the Dutch parliament against a proposed ban on the burqa, the head-to-toe Islamic robe.

Several protesters wore long robes and veils exposing only their eyes, known as a niqab.

"We live in a free country and the government cannot tell us what to do with our religion," protest organizer Ayse Bayrak told The Associated Press. "We don't live in a dictatorship. We don't live under the Taliban, which oppresses women."

Apart from the impressive turn-out, the utilization of the Taliban as an argument in favor of wearing a burqa can only lead to hilarious situations. Luckily, a reporter with a brilliant sense of humour went out to find them, and here is his video report, in Dutch. And while the protesting burqas did not exactly share his wit, one lonely hijab wearer at the scene broke down in laughter at the suggestion she looked like a whore.

Once more, a ban on burqas is ridiculous and any free society to propose it should be embarrassed. At the same time the burqa-wearing protestations over ‘free choice’ and ‘respect’ sound highly suspicious, but at the very least a free society gives these ladies a constitutional option to take it off. That choice is usually not offered by the Taliban.

As we increasingly hear that demographics are determining the future of Europe and that droves are leaving the old continent, The Netherlands is always brought up in particular as an example of this phenomenon. Somehow, I’ve always felt that these statements were embellished by various commentators and thankfully the CBS (Dutch Bureau for Statistics) released a sort of interim report last month. And yes, this may indeed be the last year in quite some time to come that the Dutch are adding a net surplus to their population. And with the lowest number of babies born in twenty years, a marginal one of only 13,000 new Dutchies (on a population of 16.3 million) for the first 9 months of this year.

According to this CBS news release, emigration from The Netherlands is expected to be 130,000 for 2006, a record number and an increase of about 12% on the previous year. But half of that number is not Dutch in the first place. That group consists of Turkish immigrants returning home and refugees and asylum seekers who have not managed to obtain the status to legally reside in The Netherlands.

Even so, a large number of Dutch people are leaving and the question now is where are they off too? Well, it may be surprising but the top three of destinations is still European, and a few notable pillars of old continent decay at that. Germany, Belgium and the UK are taking in some 18,000 Dutch emigrants, with Spain and France – often equally described as futureless – taking a respectable 6th and 7th slot on the emigration destination top ten. Canada came in 5th and the USA 10th, and since they’re not listed I suspect that Australia and New Zealand probably come in somewhere in between.

There are a number of reasons for this ‘old continent popularity’. Germany and Belgium offer lower real estate prices, in Spain the weather is nicer while the job market in the UK offers a bit more excitement and earnings potential. On top of that, intra-European moves guarantee you the ability to stay close to home, a prospect that is especially interesting for the retirees who constitute some 10% of all the emigrants.

So, not exactly the massive and desperate journey across the ocean in search for a better life, but a more pragmatic approach to relocating. Still, if you net out those that stay in Europe and take account of immigrant-returnees, we see a remarkable trend to go elsewhere. And if it persists the Dutch population will start to decrease in the years to come.

Related Posts
More on the Dutch Exodus
Euro Exodus, Now The Farmers
Euro Exodus, Part II
Euro Exodus

The Economist weighs in on the Dutch election and the folly of a burqa ban:

But there is something to learn from America. American laws on freedom of expression and religion are more permissive than those in Europe. Only those who mask their faces explicitly to hide themselves and intimidate others—like the Ku Klux Klan—are forbidden to cover their faces in public forums like marches. A law banning the burqa would be flatly unconstitutional. So, probably, would be a ban on headscarves in schools. And America’s success with its Muslims probably also owes something to the flexible American labour market, which gives minorities of all kinds the hope (if not the reality) of climbing the social ladder.

It's a bit of a broad brush analysis written in a hurry, but the overall sentiment is correct. Europe's integration model has failed and it is time to look for alternative approaches. If the Dutch election result is any guidance however, it may be quite a while before a more American approach is adopted.

Paul Belien analyzes the rise of the new star of Dutch politics, Socialist Party leader Jan Marijnissen. He touches on some very interesting themes, although comparing the former maoist to Pat Buchanan may be somewhat confusing to outsiders. Belien's point is: the left has an equal ability to adopt some of the themes that are usually associated with some of Europe's right. Rejecting the EU, questioning foreign cultures and opting for an outdated form of protectionism can just as well be offered in a 'left' package. And that is also why mainstream parties are losing ground and why a Weimarization of European politics is hardly a far-fetched term.

And yes, religion. One reader - like Belien - has pointed out to me that the Socialist Party cleverly embraced religious themes and that this week's losers all took a secular stance. It may be too early to qualify all this as a decisive anti-establishment vote and a return to more traditional values, but there is a notable shift in attitudes. Depending on the election, it is something that both the new left and the new right are able to successfully plug into.

In random order here are some of the more important conclusions from yesterday's election:

The Establishment Lost - Remember that Fortuyn’s campaign four years ago was launched with a book against the then ruling 'purple' coalition (Labour, VVD, Democrats 66). All of these three parties lost significantly last night.

Fractionalization - In fact all the major players lost and a fringe group from the left (Socialist Party) and the right (Wilders’ Party for Freedom) were able to get serious traction at the ballot box. In addition a number of other smaller parties gained a place at the table, contributing to a process that has fractionalized the Dutch parliament to an unprecedented degree.

Instability - The latter will make governing very, very hard.

Divisions on the Left - Wouter Bos Labour’s party failed essentially because it was not able to unite the hard and more moderate left into one coherent and pragmatic story. Tony Blair is one of the few to have managed that, but the Democrats in the US and the Socialists in France face exactly the same problem. It requires rare political talent and a unique set of circumstances to accomplish it.

And Divisions on the Right - The same applies to the right, although Dutch conservatives have in particular been quite pro-active at ruining their own chances for success. The drama within the VVD (the Rutte vs. Verdonk leadership struggle and the Hirsi Ali debacle) and the inability of the smaller right-of-center players to unite has cost the essence of Fortuyn’s legacy a chance to survive beyond his death, at least for now.

No Americanization - Wilders emphasized that he stands for more than just countering Islamization, but when you add in lower taxes and cracking down harder on crime, it all is just too much of an American deal for the cautious Dutch. They are only prepared to move to the right carefully, without losing the framework built by decades of gentle social-democracy.

Bias to the Left - That was underlined by the after-election reactions. Most parties wasted no time to distance themselves from Wilders as being ‘too radical’, a reaction that inexplicably was not applied to that other equally hard-line outfit, the triumphant Socialist Party.

Challenges Ahead - So the traditional right and left have to go back to the drawing table and seriously think how they will position themselves going forward. The Christian-Democrats in the meantime will be given the unappealing duty to form a government with, most likely, the battered Labour party and one of the untested smaller outfits. By all accounts hardly an appealing perspective.

NOTE: The Washington Post has a pretty good round-up too, if you're interested.

Also, Michael van der Galien at TMV has some worthwhile thoughts.

An Unclear Message and a Leftward Tilt

So, here's the culmination of a few weeks of analysis and poll tracking: election day. We should have a fairly good idea of the end result around 1:00 PM Pacific Time, and I will track developments with lots of links and commentary throughout the morning.

Expectation: the result will confuse all the pundits that have been writing and talking about the 'Dutch right turn', but the outcome will probably give us ample material to keep following the troubled nation for years to come.

Here's a primer for the uninitiated.

7:51 AM Turn-out among immigrants is high (maybe even reaching 78%), it is estimated that they will determine 12 seats (out of a 150-seat parliament). Apparently there is lots of interest from Arab and Moroccan TV-stations as a Labour victory would see Amsterdam councillor Ahmed Aboutaleb become minister.

9:15 AM The mainstream media are actively looking at the Dutch too. The Guardian claims that The Dutch Recover Their Courage while the Washington Times sees a welfare-cutting prime-minister cruising to victory. Both outlets could be very wrong.

9:20 AM The woman who would have run, and who now resides at AEI weighs in on the burqa ban debate.

10:10 AM The first exit poll is expected at 11:50 AM from RTL , which is stirring up a little controversy as they will be releasing these numbers ten minutes before the polls close.

11:30 AM While we are awaiting results it may be worthwhile noting that the Dutch have a proportional representation system and - as opposed to Germany - no threshold to get represenation. If indeed we end up with the Party for the Animals in parliament with one seat, you know the numerical logic behind it.

Another remarkable thing to note is that one religious party, the small Christian Union (not to be confused with the Christian Democrats) is also expected to do well. Interestingly this party positions itself to the left of the center and is therefore associated with a more socialist interpretation of the bible. And the Socialist Party - yes, the one with the maoist roots - has benefited from the participation of Huub Oosterhuis, a former priest known for the quote: "The Socialist Party is closer to the social ethics of the Bible than many Christian parties." Whoever said Europe had gone secular?

11:45 AM Look, I really like the Jerusalem Post but this heading is just ridiculous: Hard-line prime minister looks set to win Dutch elections. Hard-line?

11.58 AM EXIT POLL The Christian-Democrats of the 'hard-line' incumbent prime-minister are set to win according to RTL's exit poll. But marginally, all the large parties lose seats, the smaller parties are doing well. Here's your ticket to instability.

The NOS - Dutch public broadcaster - has its numbers here, they are different, but same trend. The big winner is the Socialist Party, the party that was born out of the split in the Dutch communist party in the 1970s. They have acquired a measure of respectability and have been clever at marketing to the undecideds. But they remain an old-style left-wing outfit, come to think of it, they are actually 'hard-line'. With some 20% (this may change) of the vote they may be holding the balance of power and actually have a say in a new coalition arrangement. Think Noam Chomsky heading up the US Treasury.

Geert Wilders does well, as does the Party for the Animals. If these numbers hold we're going back to vote sooner rather than later. The only likely coalition may be Christian Democrats-Labour-Christian Union and as I mentioned, this will be a left-religious undertaking.

It's early and a grand centre-left coalition of Christian Democrats-Labour is equally likely. But centre-right is out of the question.

The traditional Dutch right, the free-market liberal VVD (Verdonk, and formerly Hirsi Ali) is suffering a severe electoral blow. And they deserve it.

12:21 PM You can follow Dutch TV here. Just saw the leader of the Party for the Animals commenting that addressing "the castration of pigs without an anaesthetic" will be her first priority now that she has entered parliament. I kid you not.

12:47 PM The Fortuyn revolution is over, that much is clear. His intellectual heir (whom I had the pleasure of meeting a little while back), Marco Pastors will be lucky to win only one seat. The Fortuyn vote has gone to the successful Christian-Democrats, Wilders and yes, the Socialist Party. The anger and discontent are still there but they have been channeled in a different direction.

1:08 PM The numbers are updated and a Christian Democrats-Labour coalition with a majority looks unlikely now.

Prime-minister Balkenende will stay on as the nation's leader, a job that will not go to Labour's Blairite talent Wouter Bos. Bos failed to unite the left under one reformed umbrella and is paying a heavy electoral price for this tonight.

2:18 PM A very high turn-out: 80.8%.

2:24 PM Here are the most recent, probably final, numbers. In summary, the left has won marginally but as it stands divided between the moderate Bos (Labour) and radical Marijnissen (Socialist Party) it has been unable to actually win this election outright. So the default winner, Christian-Democrat Balkenende, will have the unenviable task of having to form a left-of-center coalition. In that he will have to distance himself from his own successful economic policies. What will happen with the immigration and law and order files remains unclear, but they will not be addressed from a conservative perspective, that much is certain.

More analysis about the election and its broader implications in the days ahead.

Others Blogging
Klein Verzet (which translates to 'Small Resistance') has some pre-analysis and argues that "Subconsciously, everybody feels the stakes are very high". I think he's right.

Dutch blog Sargasso runs an election cafe and has a very useful post with seat projections.

At Crooked Timber, Ingrid Robeyns has a preview and notes that the Party for the Animals is projected to win a parliamenary seat (h/t One Way Street: Aesthetics and Politics).

The Dutch general election is tomorrow and here is a summary of the most recent poll numbers from three different sources:

The very latest poll is here.

No major changes from previous updates: the Christian-Democrats will probably win this election by a very small margin, a resurgent left is going to do some good business and the right will put in an abysmal performance. What is potentially even more troubling is that if these numbers end up on the screen tomorrow night it will be very hard to cobble together a workable coalition with strong parliamentary support. Still there are many undecided voters so we may be in for a few last minute surprises.

It is too early to state that this outcome will end the Foruyn-era, but it is evident that too much change and revolutionary thought falls hard on the Dutch stomach.

Of course, I will do a liveblog tomorrow and gather some reactions as well as put forward some of my own thoughts. Stay tuned.

To many outsiders it may seem odd that Muslim immigration has taken some sort of backseat during most of the current campaign. The tendency towards complacency and avoiding explosive issues is nicely described in this piece from the IHT that also wonders why a relative calm has settled over the troubled lowlands. The answer is the basic Dutch instinct to neutralize conflict:

Both Frits Bolkestein, the former European Commission member who began writing in the early 1990s about Islam as a challenge for Europe, and Halberstadt emphasize that the Dutch are weary of confrontation. Halberstadt says that the present consensus reflects a current Dutch "satisfaction with perceptions, and not wanting to spend passion on issues."

For Bolkestein, integrating Islam "remains Europe's most serious problem." He believes the Dutch are not really going to come to final terms with it until there is a constitutional amendment ending religious schooling. "Divided schooling leads to a divided country," he says.

And reigniting the schooling debate is probably the last thing the Dutch want at this juncture. That in particular goes for incumbent Christian-Democrat prime-minister Balkenende whose entire campaign was based around an issueless feelgood message, purportedly steering the Dutch back to normality.

In the final stretch of the campaign the immigration debate came back, but it was most often used as a tool of desperation in order to get some media attention and possible movement in voting intentions. The best example of course was the burqa ban which all of a sudden emerged. But even more serious attempts to frame the debate over immigration in a historical context failed to excite the Dutch. A good example is Marco Pastors who in a radio commercial compared the inability to face the Islamization of Europe to the inaction that existed in the 1930s when it came to confronting the Nazi threat. Some outrage ensued, an Islamic party even reported the comments to the police as discriminatory language, but it did not force the Dutch to debate one of the more pressing issues facing the nation. It didn’t even shift the polls and Pastors' new party so far has failed to get material traction.

Personally, I find it equally troubling that a nation that enthusiastically rejected the draft European Constitution is barely a year later able to talk about what it then wants from Europe. One can blame the various parties for this absence of a EU-discussion, but I would equally lay the blame in front of an electorate that after a communal round of venting indeed prefers to be lulled back to a consensus that artificially and comfortably covers up the key issues. And sooner or later these will erupt, from jihadist violence to unfundable pension obligations to irreversible Euro-legislation. But few appear to care about that.

On the eve of the general election a major cover-up by the current coalition government has surfaced:

Dutch military interrogators abused 15 Iraqi prisoners in 2003, dousing them with water to keep them awake and exposing them to loud sounds and strong lights, the government said Friday.

The allegation, first reported by a respected Dutch newspaper, shocked ranking government officials and led one opposition leader to compare it to the U.S. abuse of Iraqi prisoners in the scandal at Abu Ghraib prison.

Defense Minister Henk Kamp told reporters that military police had investigated the use of these tactics by military intelligence officers in Iraq in 2003 and found they did not overstep the law.

Well maybe they didn't. But Kamp has been deeply mistaken to keep quiet about only to see the issue resurface days before an election where both his party and his coalition are not exactly expected to do very well. This is an extraordinary gift to both Labour and the Socialist Party and they will milk it for all it's worth, so expect some interesting shifts in the next poll. Remember, around 40% was undecided and even if this turns out to be a non-issue, it will have a material impact on an already highly confused electorate.

NOTE: The Moderate Voice has been covering Dutch events too and here is a useful post on how the left has been changing its approach. Add the latest twist in the mix and they may edge closer to numbers that would allow a Labour-Socialist Party-Green Left coalition. More news and analysis later.

UPDATE: Yes, a burqa ban was put on the table today too. Always a tough proposition and in the current environment it will go absolutely nowhere. It's cheap last minute electioneering.

More instability ahead?

With a little over a week to go to voting day the latest poll numbers corroborate the trend of the past few weeks and they point to a remarkable outcome. The centrist Christian-Democrats remain solidly ahead of Labour which has been losing momentum over the past few weeks. Here are the numbers from Angus-Reid and they concur with most of the other polling numbers coming out of The Netherlands over the past few days:

But, what is so significant?

First, Labour (or PvdA) is failing to live up to what many believed was their unique chance to become the largest party, deliver the next prime-minister and become the dominant player in a collation of its own choosing. Labour leader Bos is starting to look too Blairite for his core constituency and voters on the left are now increasingly supporting the Socialist Party, an unreconstructed leftist outfit that stands solidly to the left of the traditionally moderate Labour Party. This trend is exacerbated by the public perception that the race over who is to become the largest party is essentially over and that a vote for Labour is increasingly irrelevant. In addition there is the so-called ‘floating protest vote’ which tends to throw its allegiance to the latest political star - Pim Fortuyn benefited from that in the past - which in the Dutch political scene today is Jan Marijnissen. Anecdotal evidence points to the fact that the Socialist leader has been able to shed his stalinist antics and is now a ‘reasonable guy’ who has become acceptable material for public office. This is political experimentation at best and the truth about Marijnissen remains quite murky, at least in my mind.

Secondly, the slide of the traditional Dutch right, the VVD, is irreversible. This party – fiscally conservative, socially liberal and hawkish on foreign policy – continues to bleed for its highly ambiguous strategy. On the one hand they are trying to appeal to the far right by parading immigration minister Rita Verdonk around as a key asset – not wise given the minister’s key role in the Hirsi Ali affair – but at the same time they are desperately trying to reach to drifters in the center with their youthful and moderate leader Mark Rutte. This two pronged approach is actually turning voters away to the smaller parties on the right and to whatever else operates in the center. Many lifelong VVD-ers are disgusted with the lack of clarity in their party and the poor campaign of the past few weeks. It does indeed look that after being part of government coalitions since 1994 they will be relegated to opposition status, and in seat numbers, humiliatingly, behind the now robust Socialist Party.

It should be noted that according to various polls some 40% of the voters is still undecided and the current projected numbers may turn out differently. Yet, there has been a very clear pattern and there are no indications that will change materially in the week ahead. If it holds the right is getting a fairly humiliating defeat and a centrist prime-minister will have no other option than look to the left to form a government. In doing that he may have to put the very economic policies at risk that allowed him to comfortably cruise through this campaign.

Another first:

The Netherlands may become the first European country to ban Muslim face veils after its government pledged yesterday to outlaw the wearing in public spaces of the niqab, or veil, and the burka, or full-length cloak covering the head.

The right-leaning coalition said last night that it would look for a way to outlaw the wearing of all Muslim face veils.

The right-leaning coalition is, with some ten days to go to the election, in its last throes and it will be hard to put this measure in place on such a short notice. In addition, this is a blanket ban and would no doubt run into some serious parliamentary resistance. Not only would it conflict with the principle of religious freedom, it would be seen as a serious invasion of personal freedom. The latter would not just alarm the left; it would surely create some discord on the right as well.

We have seen many attempts all over Europe to do something about these veils, but it seems that limited bans - for public employees, or in public spaces - are far more effective. And, they serve a clearly defined goal, such as security or the impartiality of government workers. Again, immigration-related issues are proving to be quite attractive in the final stretch of the campaign, but don't count on any of the proposals that are floating around now to become law anytime soon.

Here is a measure of how shameless some nations have become:

The Dutch government plans to give a citation to troops who served as peacekeepers in Srebrenica but failed to stop the massacre of Bosnian Muslims 11 years ago in what was supposed to be a UN-protected safe haven. The plan to award a unique insignia for duty at Srebrenica outraged survivors and victims' families Wednesday, who called it an insult to those who died.

The award was meant to heal a painful wound in the military, which felt unfairly blamed for the massacre and its reputation unjustly tarnished.

Even in the face of massive failures, all of which were corroborated by a parliamentary inquest that sparked the resignation of a government, there are those who find ways for some macabre self-congratulation. If you want to get a flavor of the Dutchbats accomplishments in Srebrenica take a look at this sobering article by Guido Snel. Key excerpts:

The Dutch, in fact, felt as endangered as the local population, which in the given circumstances, to put it mildly, made no sense. Rules, instructions and poor communication would later supply the desired justification.

[ ... ]

‘My case is one of the most terrible in terms of the international community’s role. The Dutch major Robert Franken told me to explain to my father that he can remain on the base. My father asks what will happen to his younger son and my mother. Franken tells me: "Hasan, tell your father that if he does not want to stay, he can go too. And there’ll be no further discussion." My father had three seconds to decide whether he wants to stay on the base, to go on living with his elder son, or go and die with his younger son and his wife. He chose to leave. A month ago, at the court in The Hague, Major Franken coolly states that he gave him a choice. What sort of choice?’

Well, the Armenian genocide is back in the election campaign. The Dutch-Turkish contingent has threatened to shift its allegiance away from Labour after its leader, Wouter Bos, had managed to alienate the Turkish vote by taking a very clear stance on the Armenian genocide.

As I discussed here and here, Labour is in trouble and Bos has now decided to undercut his own clear moral stance by reconsidering the Armenian genocide in order to entice the Turks back into Labour's fold:

The word genocide is being used too freely in The Netherlands according to Bos. He argued that there is an international judicial debate going on about this topic. “We condemn murder, but we have to be careful in using the term genocide”.

Bos said that he would stop using the work genocide. “It is a learning process for me too. Labour prefers to in the future refer to the ‘Armenian issue’.

The irony of using the word 'issue' here will probably not be lost on most of you. The desperation with which Bos is willing to reverse his previous position while cleansing his language is not only disappointing, it is reason for deep concern.

It is in fact scary if you consider how he has opened the door for other electoral groups that might have an interest in revisiting certain historic events. We can debate the ‘Armenian issue’ ad nauseam and I am sure there are certain facts and interpretations lost on most of us. The real question is how many election cycles it will take before some parties are open to reconsidering less ambiguous historical events. And yes, I can think of at least one.

Related Post
The Armenian Genocide

The latest Dutch poll numbers are out, and they confirm the trend that incumbent prime-minister Balkenende is solidifying his lead over Labour’s Wouter Bos. And the dynamics of the battle between the two men is clear:

In a poll in de Telegraaf newspaper, readers said they would rather go on holiday with the youthful and charismatic Mr Bos, but would prefer to buy a used car from Mr Balkenende, who is seen as trustworthy and reliable. Whereas Mr Bos is the better communicator, Mr Balkenende can let the results of a fiscal management forecast that predicts a three per cent increase in economic growth in 2007, speak for themselves.

Not surprisingly Mr Bos has tried to shift the debate away from purchasing power to concerns about inner city safety and social integration.

That is exactly the point I made in my PJM column last week, the parties falling behind in this election are now all of a sudden turning to immigration and integration in order to bring about some last moment electoral shifts. With a little over two weeks to go it is too early to say if that will happen, but the recent trend contradicts any such movements. The Dutch are opting for calm, trust and short-term convenience while preferring to avoid the harder questions for the future. And to his credit, Bos has not just tried to talk about integration; he has equally raised the specter of altering both the unsustainable retirement arrangements and mortgage rate deductibility. None of which has given him access to a leading position and that tells us something about the ability of politicians of whatever stripe to effect meaningful change in Europe.

Still, the race remains close and it should also be noted that Balkenende based on the current numbers is not able to form a credible right-of-center coalition. That would put the Dutch exactly where their German neighbors are: being governed by a grand coalition of Christian-Democrats and Labour. And that in turn means a minding-the-store solution with the prospect of another premature election. Developing.

This is a Dutch expression, and you probably understand its deeper meaning. Consider this:

The Dutch parliament ordered an investigation Thursday into how much the country's top intelligence agency service knew about an Islamic extremist before he shot and stabbed film maker Theo van Gogh.

Lawmakers, including members of the government, supported a motion by the opposition Labor Party ordering an evaluation of why the intelligence agency knew Mohammed Bouyeri belonged to a radical group known as the Hofstad Network but did not consider him a major threat.

It has taken two years to get to this point and legal impediments – reasons cited by the government for delaying the inquest – seem not entirely plausible. What is remarkable though is the timing of the motion asking for an investigation. Yes, we are one week away from the second anniversary of Theo van Gogh’s murder and four weeks away from a general election. No prizes for those who can answer the question as to why it was Labor that has picked this week to move this issue back on the agenda.

And no, I do not expect this investigation to yield any worthwhile revelations, just like the inquest into Fortuyn’s protection failed to produce anything disruptive. That is often not the point of any of these exercises; they are used to placate some pressing voter concerns and more broadly to put the national conscience at ease.

The latest polls numbers are in and Balkenende's Christian-Democrats are now pulling ahead of Labour. And in the man-to-man popularity contest for the role of prime-minister, Balkenende is also ahead of his Labour rival, with a edge of 35% to 24% over Wouter Bos. Noteworthy is that 40% of Dutch voters react negatively to both men and that reveals a level of apathy or disappointment with the current political scene that raises some deeper questions about the Dutch political landscape. And the debate which we've argued has been pretty tame so far. It is clear however that Bos peaked too early while not managing a tight campaign whereas Balkenende has always been somewhat of a 'by default' prime-minister.

In coalition terms it will remain difficult to form a majority one, but with these numbers the smaller factions on the right (wilders, Pastors and the Christian Union) could hold the key to a new right-of-center cabinet. We've got another four weeks ahead of us, but it seems that the Dutch are beginning to lean rightwards, carefully.

... for those interested to learn that a possible burqa ban will be (a) general, ie. not restricted to public employees only and (b) continues to be studied by a committee of wise men who will advise the government in early November.

Prediction: excpect a pragmatic Dutch compromise, not to be mistaken for 'tolerance'.