Yes, it's time to slow down. There are a few things that need to be wrapped up on the business side and after that it's time for the family.

It's been a hectic year on the business, blogging and personal side. Many people e-mail me and ask me what I do that makes me busy, but for a large part it is work: helping early stage companies to get going. There are a few but this is the jewel in the crown, a company working at the confluence of operations research (Virginia Postrel had a good piece on that a little while back) and artificial intelligence. It's interesting stuff and I encourage you to check out both links.

I plan to be back at it early January, but I may drop in with the occasional post if I feel like it or if events really require some comments.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Christmas is upon us, time to slow down and reflect, I will look back on the fruits of Peaktalk. It was an eventful year that started off with a minor case of blogger burn-out followed by a return and a hefty surge in traffic and linkage following the eventful month of November. Thanks for coming, thanks for commenting, thanks for linking and thanks for making this a really fulfilling experience for me. Many posts got reactions or where linked, but these were my personal favorites for 2004:

December
Reader traffic was driven by the threat of Jihadists to attack Amsterdam’s red light district, which caused quite a stir among readers. Of course it was somehow all related to Van Gogh and I finally had some time to translate some interesting and revealing stuff from his website.

November
Two things stood out: Bush’s re-election and the Van Gogh killing. But what I really enjoyed was finally summing up, in detail, my list of all-time favorite songs.

October
The final stretch of the campaign: some disappointing debates, George Soros and Mary Cheney.

September
It started with the GOP Convention, liveblogging the nominee’s speech, but it was also time to reflect on Bush’s capabilities.

August
I took some pleasure in addressing Europe’s bleak prospects in Hedonist Europe, highlighting the atlantic gap.

July
Was the month of the Democratic Convention and it became very clear that John Kerry was an unnatural candidate.

June
Ronald Reagan died and I said, Farewell My Friend.

February to May
The blogging break, a forgettable period. A piece of advice to other bloggers: never let it happen as you may lose some great momentum.

January
The month of the budget deficits following the release of former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill’s book. I discussed it here, here and here.

Roger Simon keeps asking the question why Hollywood hasn’t responded to the killing of a fellow filmmaker who spoke his mind. There haven’t been any real explanations for this other than the usual argument that Hollywood is reluctant to get too close to issues that deal with Islamist terror as it is perceived to be conservative territory. That’s only part of the explanation. Buried in this article I found out that Dutch filmmakers have been equally confused about this affair, I have bolded the crucial parts:

The death of Van Gogh has fuelled a ferocious debate about freedom of speech in the Netherlands. Some of Van Gogh's fellow film-makers are deeply uncomfortable about the way the media has covered his death. "Even his friends know that he was attacking everybody," says Honigmann. "He was making great use of the freedom of speech we have in this country and going too far, but they showed his cremation on TV as if he were a king."

Van Gogh achieved a position in death that many of his colleagues will probably never reach in life. But it would of course be foolish to start bitching and complaining about that when an entire nation was writing hagiographies about Van Gogh. Better keep quiet and wait until the storm passes. Yes, there’s some resentment here. I am not sure if that applies to the Hollywood crowd, Roger might be able to elaborate on that, but it sure played its part in Holland.

So a missile defense test failed yesterday. This is not a big deal from a technical point of view, implementing these systems takes time and ups and down are part of the process. Nor is it a political issue, although some will try to exploit the news to argue that the entire missile defense plan is flawed. That in particular was to be expected from the freeloaders.

You can probably picture it, Osama Bin Laden knocking on door after door and asking “hey, I’ve got a war for you, interested?” That’s however the image that that emerges when you read this article by Andrew Nichols Pratt, which is an interesting read. In summary, Pratt argues that radical Islam is just a vehicle for the extreme need for self-glorification that OBL has:

Afghan Mujahideen heroically fought to liberate their country against an invading army of a totalitarian atheistic superpower in the '80's. Conversely, Bin Laden proudly kills the innocents of the world and attempts to instigate a clash of civilization between Islam and the world to liberate only his ego. What makes him "tick" is not religion - it is self-adulation.

It’s a picture that applies to many other deranged dictators that were somehow able to marry their own personality disorders with a totalitarian ideology. Many stumbled and failed initially but when they got traction, they got it big. Indeed, OBL’s track record to date is hardly impressive but it is of sufficient magnitude to mobilize a dangerous and unstoppable movement in the Arab-Muslim world. I have often made this comparison but I will make it again. During the Weimar Republic years Hitler was a fringe figure who even ended up in prison, but the psychologically bruised party leader was shrewd enough to make a devastating comeback. If he doesn’t come out of the caves alive, OBL will have planted enough seeds to keep the world busy for the next few decades.

It’s a subscriber link only but Stephen Roach’s column in the FT last week reiterates what many experts have been arguing for quite a while: the US housing market is set to tank, and in a big way too. The Morgan Stanley economist calls it the “cruellest bubble of all”

Housing analysts and central bankers are typically reluctant to draw macro conclusions from a highly fragmented US property market. The risk is they focus on the trees and miss the forest. The latest OFHEO tally shows house price inflation has run at double-digit rates over the past year in 25 of 50 US states plus the District of Columbia. Housing is an asset class just as prone to excess as stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. If it feels like a bubble and acts like a bubble, it probably is one.

What compounds the problem is the low savings rate in the US, largely the result of excessive consumption and the notion that savings are realized by appreciating home values. If you then add in that these increased values are tapped into as were they an ATM, you can see why a property crash is going to be cruel. And not only that, previous experiences tell us that it will take a long time before such excesses are digested by an economy:

While it is only a few years since the bursting of the equity bubble, memories of that speculative excess have already dimmed. Yet in retrospect, that may have been only the warm-up for the main event. Bubbles have a way of feeding on each other - ultimately leading to an even more treacherous shakeout. That is certainly the lesson from Japan and could well be the case in the US. America, so short of savings, will not be spared - especially if it must now come to grips with the biggest asset bubble of them all.

I am the last one to play Dr. Doom and start hyperventilating about interest rates and collapsing markets but Roach’s warnings are real and credible. The last burst was mitigated by low-interest rates and rising property values that helped sustain consumer demand, but this there will be no safety valve to help engineer a soft landing. It will be hard, very hard.

OTB TJ Entry

It was surprising to see that the Economist supported the notion of government entering the childcare business last week (subscriber link only) following the announcement of Tony Blair’s plans in that direction. Incidentally, the Canadians are at it as well, sweeping aside common sense solutions such as tax breaks for childcare expenses by trying to create a universal, no doubt unionized, behemoth. Apart from the Orwellian notion of a dehumanized state apparatus that takes children out of their homes, there are many good arguments against these plans and Ginna Dowler last week summed up some of the common myths about a national childcare system, to conclude that:

“ … the program encourages parents to put infants and very young toddlers in care, which is not widely recommended by child development advocates”

And that is probably one of the most important points. But the issue comes up even before the child is born. Earlier this year Jackie (who is back blogging here) at Samizdata relegated state sponsored daycare to the bin by appealing to the simple underlying truth about personal responsibility:

"But think of the children!" comes the usual plaintive wail. To do so is terrifying: a nation of babies raising babies can only end in tears. How much will we be expected to spend on cleaning up this spill before the idea that individual choices matter ceases to be answered with a "Yes, but..." and a tax demand?

Well, personal responsibility has in many cases been abrogated by the state by trying to force women back into the workforce. That sounds a bit dramatic but last week the Social and Cultural Planning Bureau in the Netherlands – yes, such institutions do actually still exist - lamented that its targets for emancipation in the workforce were not being met as more women than planned preferred to stay at home:

“ … the bureau claimed the failing is due to weak government policy. It asserted further that the cabinet had set clear targets, but was inadequately informing relevant groups and employers on how to attain them”

The Pope also weighed in on the topic earlier this year by debunking feminism as the root of all evil and while I don’t agree with some of the Pope’s underlying ideas the net result of governments booting women back to work without assessing the resulting long-term social costs of poorly cared for children is substantial. This was my conclusion:

The paradox is that trademark issues from the right, freedom and free markets, seeking wealth and fortune are encouraged by left-of-center intellectuals; whereas a more conservative approach to the role of women and families somehow seems to bar access to a great career and market opportunities. So, there’s no clear answer to this conundrum but the answer should not be found with radical feminists or governments that seek to artificially engineer our society, nor should we accept the Pope’s lectures on how the world should implement social mores on men, women and children alike. The latest missive from the Vatican however contains a few worthwhile talking points when we look at the increasing tension between seeking wealth and raising a new generation.

Governments in the 21st century should take their lessons from the many disasters that resulted from misguided social involvement and restrict themselves to enabling parents to make their own informed choices. It’s an obvious route but for some reason the attractions of shaping people’s lives by implementing outdated social doctrines make it very hard to follow it.

For some reason I discontinued the weekly Apprentice discussion, but other bloggers have been on the case. The Yin Blog has some sensible comments and argues that the final outcome, this coming Thursday, may be surprising. Heretics' Almanac takes a different approach and looks at a number of ways in which the show can be improved. I agree there’s ample room for that and I am especially receptive to the idea to get the candidates to do more than just “selling” tasks; it’s a surprise to me that after two seasons we have yet to see one investing challenge. Give each team $10k and get them to play the market and see who ends up with most cash after a two-day run on the stock market. Or better still, get some early stage tech firms that previously sought venture capital funding to present to the teams who will then have to decide in which ones to invest. If they start investing in companies that failed to secure VC funding that would indicate a lack of sound investment judgment, and no, you don’t need to understand the technology to make such a decision. Let's see if the Apprentice can get a bit more creative in season three.

Arthur Chrenkoff is lamenting the fact that the media are not paying enough attention to the postitive developments in Afghanistan. It's a Bush foreign policy success story and where MSM is dropping the ball, the blogosphere picks it up.

Thanks to Andrew and Roger the number of visitors to Peaktalk this weekend was unprecedented. And yes, the topic of jihadists planning to attack Amsterdam’s sex business was of course likely to generate some interest. What was interesting to me was that I got sense of what Andrew’s inbox looks like on any given day as his readers jumped on my comment that Christian fundamentalists would equally cheer such an attack. The many reactions were divided, some approving that observation (and urging me to embellish it) and some blasting me for lacking nuance and diluting the message that jihadists are prepared to attack anything. And of course some making the entirely valid point that radical Musllims "now really have gone too far".

I added some of these comments to the original post and I admit that the group on the Christian side applauding jihadist bombings is probably very small, but I do believe that there are some that would really see it as evidence that sinful ways can never go unpunished. What I did forget and which is a very important point is that many Christian organizations work relentlessly to help out those working in the sex business, as one reader pointed out:

“ … red light districts go hand in hand with evangelical mission houses where fundamentalist Christians work to save the souls of the saddest, most exploited members of the community. To the evangelist, the first understanding of the Bible is the capacity of every man for sin, the fallibility of all, and the need for faith in God to escape a sin filled life. No, fundamentalists wouldn't be happy to kill these sad souls for they want to save them. When I was a kid I asked my father why prostitution was illegal. Back then I hadn't a clue what the word meant. He told me "Because in our country we don't let people hurt themselves". Today, "modernists" fight to protect their fellow citizens from tobacco, alcohol, fatty food, not using seat belts, but protect the sad sad mixed up human destruction that is prostitution. If someone is screwed up, and hurting themselves, one can rationalize their choices, but a battle to defend their choices is hardly noble, and to partake of what these poor creatures are selling is the real crime”

While I do strongly favor legalizing this business it is true that it has created many human disasters and it has often been the church that has been there first to help out. In Amsterdam’s red light area the local branch of the Salvation Army is together with hookers, johns, tourists, police and the underworld an integral part of the unique social fabric of that place.

One of my plans was to, before the year is over; translate some of the most salient bits from Theo van Gogh’s website, De Gezonde Roker or in English: The Healthy Smoker. He covered lots of topics and although not following the exact format, his site essentially was a blog. It was born out of necessity as almost every major Dutch media outlet where he worked terminated the columnist Van Gogh before his contract was over, in most cases for having offended someone or having transgressed the boundaries of good taste which he did regularly. It was not something that really bothered him, it proved his point about traditional media and prevailing attitudes, and as a result he ended up with his own outlet.

It’s hard to put Van Gogh in a political frame but if I had to do it, it would be what some these days call a radical centrist. He was pro-Bush but that support was qualified by his sincere dislike of the president’s socially conservative attitudes and Van Gogh considered the outcome of the 2000 election to be questionable. He had a deep disdain for the left and for Michael Moore and his ilk. Van Gogh pulverized the Dutch political elites, especially those of the left, in his many essays and interviews. He was relentless in his pursuit of those who he felt contributed to Pim Fortuyn’s death, notably some left-liberal newspapers and politicians. And of course he pointed to the age of darkness that was about to visit Europe and he wished he was younger for he would have definitely immigrated to America to escape it all. Not able or willing to do that, he tried to instill that opportunity in his young son who he hoped would really make trek across the ocean one day. I think Van Gogh had figured out that there was little hope for Europe and that there was no political will to turn things around. With that in mind you might as well leave.

When you read through his stuff you get the impression that he had accepted the role of the lone warrior, especially after Fortuyn's death, who realized that the outcome might not be favorable but that it was best to charge ahead and accept whatever risks that might entail. Americans complaining about the New York Times and the liberal media should realize that there’s a parallel conservative or radical centrist universe with newspapers, blogs and think tanks in the US that presents an alternative outlet for news and views. Hey, even Canada has a conservative tradition. Nothing of that nature exists in the Netherlands, and Van Gogh was therefore a lonely voice, ostracized, yet he soldiered on: in the wake of Fortuyn’s killing, during the war in Iraq and taking up Ayaan Hirsi Ali’s cause when she started receiving serious death threats. He even managed to secure financing to produce and direct a movie about Fortuyn’s death without having to apply for government subsidies, which is the usual approach in Holland if you want to make a film. Despite his rebellious attitude Van Gogh was a capable and very bright guy and it wasn’t a surprise that some would be willing to take a chance on him to make this movie, which was released yesterday.

So here are some excerpts that I found worth translating, there’s a lot more on his site (a lot of it wouldn't make sense to foreign audiences) but this will give you an idea. On Amsterdam Mayor Cohen:

“The police in Amsterdam has no interest to help out the original inhabitants of this city that are threatened by an increasingly aggressive minority. And least of all Cohen. When Mr. Jahjas’s soul mates killed nearly three-thousand Americans in the World Trade Center the first point of action for our mayor was a visit to the mosque. At schools, mosques, everywhere in Amsterdam there were parties celebrating this great victory on Satan. Cohen kowtowed for the believers and stated: “you’re all part of us!”, rather than asking the question “what the hell are you doing here?”. Cohen is acting like a wartime mayor, and I don’t mean that as a compliment.” (Van Gogh refers to the many Dutch mayors that collaborated with Nazi occupiers during WWII - Ed.).

On America’s perceived superficiality:

“The dead poor sheep farmers on Sicily at the turn of the century argued that America must be heaven on earth as emigrated family members relayed messages of having meat for dinner everyday. That was a mouthwatering experience for people who could enjoy that privilege maybe once in a lifetime. You can argue that particular instinct to be ‘ordinary’ or ‘superficial’ like so many do here, but it is way beyond me to look down on it. America is hated because it embodies the hope of people that yearn for a better life, to have meat everyday, but also to believe in the God they choose, or not. To say what you want without being persecuted. To be a woman without a veil, with the right to vote, free expression and adultery, without being stoned.

On the impact of his site:

When I started the Healthy Smoker people looked at me in amazement and to be true, I had no idea if it would lead to anything. Now, five years later more than 20,000 people read my weekly column and I am a blessing to many. The mayor of The Hague send a couple of police detectives to Maastricht to arrest a 17-year old man who (without linking to me) had quoted an offending piece about our Queen from my site and let this offender of our Trix (the Queen’s nickname- Ed.) spend a night in jail. They’re a busy lot, our authorities. I always wondered why they didn’t arrest me in the first place, but apparently the mayor in question was alert enough to avert a potential public relations disaster. God Save the Queen.

On Fortuyn’s killing:

Two months before that fatal May 6th I asked on this site why Pim so far hadn’t been shot. Readers were perplexed and asked if I had lost my mind, because something like that “would never happen in Holland”. Right.

And more on the fateful day Fortuyn was killed:

I am too old to emigrate to America, that beacon of light in an ever darkening world. What else can you do here in Holland but to watch in amazement at the collusion of politically correct politicians with that underworld of women-hating Imams, Moroccan gay-bashers and anti-American demonstrators? You can not in Holland congratulate on TV the leader of the Green Left Party with the successful murder of May 6 at the risk of being called depraved or being cast as a village idiot. “Please let’s keep things nice and cozy”. My problem is: I don’t see anything remotely nice or cozy.

To keep things nice and within pre-defined rules of engagement is a typical Dutch instinct and it serves a politically correct debate well. Both Van Gogh and Fortuyn ignored it completely and spoke from their hearts. That approach also applies to the way he described his support for the invasion of Iraq:

Suzan – to whom I would love to devote some passionate words as being one of my great lovers – called me from Sydney, Australia, drunk, to tell me that Bush was the greatest threat to world peace. You shared a bed with someone like that, you had an enormous amount of fun with her, a year ago you shared an elephant in Thailand, and now you have to endure the complete nonsense she dispenses and you tell yourself that really, Western civilization is built on the right to disagree with one another. It is a paradox though that a fifth column of peace birds, in which all the Suzans of this world march along compliantly, provide the exact proof that the values that are defended by Bush and Blair are of a higher standard than those of Saddam. How decadent do you have to be as a free person in the West to happily applaud at your own grave by protesting against America and not against the butchers in Baghdad?

It’s a coincidence that the Belmont Club last week discussed the tendency of many European justice systems to punish victims of crimes for taking action against criminals themselves rather than wait for the overburdened and ineffective justice system to deal with it. In Holland last year tech mogul and ex-Compaq executive Roel Pieper was attacked with a knife in his home by a deranged anti-capitalist activist and Pieper's approach was – what else to expect from a tech millionaire – to take on the perpetrator, landing both him and his wife in hospital (I actually blogged about it here). Of course Van Gogh weighed in sensing that a dislike for success contributed to the attack and the lamentable reactions to it:

The Dutch police finds it very strange that there are people that dislike it when their wives are being stabbed by a nutcase. Even stranger is the fact that someone whose wife is threatened decides to chase down the terrorist in order to track him down and have him arrested. It’s better to let your wife be stabbed, call the police and wait for the police to turn up.

Even the Telegraaf (a conservative newspaper) thought that Pieper had gone too far and that serves as evidence that fools have essentially taken over this country.

It’s a pity that Pieper didn’t kill the man that attacked his wife. Do you really think that millionaire Roel would have been let off the hook because of self-defense? Absolutely not.

This particular column ended with Theo asking who was next in line to be killed in The Netherlands. It turned out to be him. Rest in peace Theo.

Thank you. So far Peaktalk has raised $245 and has moved up on the ranks in the blogger's challenge to raise funds for Iraq.

But we have a few more days to go, there are lots of visitors coming through this weekend thanks to Andrew, so I thought maybe you could spare a few bucks to help buy library books for Iraqi schoolchildren. Here's the special Peaktalk contribution site. By contributing a bit ($10 buys one book) you will not only do me a favor, you'll help Iraqi children on their way to help rebuild their nation and lead better and above all happier lives. Come on, they deserve it.

OK. I have written about the Dutch being the most Anglo-Saxon of all the Europeans and I have highlighted how their pragmatism contributed to their phenomenal economic successes. There was a piece missing and this blogger pointed me to the obvious when he discusses Russell Shorto's Island at the Center of World which describes New York's early history as the city of New Amsterdam. As such the Dutch colony had a major impact on the shape and culture of the emerging American nation:

Indeed, Shorto hints that many American ideals of liberty derive not from the English tradition of Locke and Hume but the Dutch tradition of Grotius and his successors. Certainly freedom of conscience emerged much earlier in Holland and New Netherland than in England or its colonies, and the Dutch were for the most part ardent free-traders when the English were still largely mired in mercantilist protectionism.

Given that New York City eventually became the capital of the world (yes, I am still a Gothamite by nature), it would behoove historians of the American experience to pay more attention to its founding culture(s) rather than to assume that America is merely an upstanding member of the Anglosphere. The American story is more nuanced than that, nowhere more so than in the extraordinary importance of New York City in the life of the nation.

I haven't read the book but this analysis has merit. It is the relatively short period (1608 to 1664) that the Dutch ruled over Manhattan and parts along the Hudson River that probably have contributed to underplaying the significance of Dutch influences on present day America. In the end the Dutch lacked the muscle and manpower and traded New Amsterdam for Surinam and continued its colonial adventures by establishing urban trading centers rather than settling vast tracks of land.

NOTE: It looks like we are set for another wave of Dutch influence around the globe. (via Glenn)

Victor Davis Hanson paints the bleak European picture as follows:

But gut-check time is coming for Europe, with its own rising unassimilated immigrant populations, rogue mosques entirely bent on destroying the West, declining birth rate and rising entitlements, the Turkish question, and a foreign policy whose appeasement of Arab regimes won it only a brief lull and plenty of humiliation. The radical Muslim world of the madrassas hates the United States because it is liberal and powerful; but it utterly despises Europe because it is even more liberal and far weaker, earning the continent not fear, but contempt.

The real question is whether there is any Demosthenes left in Europe, who will soberly but firmly demand assimilation and integration of all immigrants, an end to mosque radicalism, even-handedness in the Middle East, no more subsidies to terrorists like Hamas, a toughness rather than opportunist profiteering with the likes of Assad and the Iranian theocracy — and make it clear that states that aid and abet terrorists in Europe due so to their great peril.

In addition that Demosthenes will have to nurture, support and cheer those within the Muslim world that are prepared to reform their religion from within. In fact that may be one of the core requirements. For now individual European states are hopelessly divided on how to deal with the domestic threats so a pan-European solution seems, for now, to be an even taller order.

I do agree with Hanson that the Muslim world loathes America and looks at Europe as a convenient launchpad for future operations. It is the logical outcome of decades of ill-informed political correctness and misguided appeasement and it will likely take decades to reverse these self-destructive attitudes.

So there are many ways in which radical Islam can and has to be addressed, but that also means that we must question each available approach. This Moroccan-Dutch-American blogger (who describes herself as a 'Berber for Bush', which is a great line I think) has some serious doubts about the way in which Ayaan Hirsi Ali has gone about it. She has some valid points and as an abused Muslim woman I think she has the credentials to critique Hirsi Ali. Go read her open letter here. (hat tip: Zacht Ei)

Nothing is sacred to the jihadists. Dutch police have arrested a man of Moroccan descent who was part of a group that was planning to attack Amsterdam’s world-famous red-light district:

Muslim extremists, the paper said, were allegedly furious at the lack of morals in the prostitution zone.

It depends on where your moral compass is, and I guess Christian fundamentalists would equally cheer such an attack. The red light area is probably one of the city’s safest neighborhoods as it is essentially run by the Amsterdam underworld who have a vested interest in protecting the unique franchise they enjoy. Jihadists however are different from competing gangs, drug addicts or unruly drunks and it is a good thing Dutch security services stepped in and arrested suspect Bilal L.:

L. was allegedly in contact with Syrian Redouan al-Issa, the fugitive leader of the terror network Hofstadgroep (Main City Group). The Syrian was an illegal immigrant in the Netherlands and gave Koran lessons in the home of Mohammed B., the suspected murderer of filmmaker Theo van Gogh. B. is also a member of the Main City Group.

The emails claimed the Syrian was involved in the plans to attack the Red Light District, while another target was the Dutch Parliament in The Hague. L. is alleged to have bought equipment needed to carry out the attack.

In earlier reports the Main City Group was alleged to be planning an attack on nuclear facilities. While the immediate outlook for Europe and its struggle with radical Islam is bleak, there are small victories here and there and this is one of them, saving one of Holland's treasured cultural icons and cash cows.

UPDATE I: A reader writes:

I hope very much that you're kidding that "Christian fundamentalists would equally cheer such an attack." If you're not, please consider that however much Christian fundamentalists might decry the existence of the red-light district, the number that would cheer a terrorist attack upon it is vanishingly small.

OK, noted.

UPDATE II: Judging from the inbox readers are more worried about whether Christian fundamentalists would or would not applaud an attack on a brothel, than the fact that the scope of jihadist plans is steadily broadening. I knew when I inserted that comment into the original post I would get some reactions and there are lots, thanks, and they are divided equally pro/con. Here's a fairly balanced and original one from another reader:

While I agree with the respondent that most Christian fundamentalists would not cheer a terrorist attack on a zone of prostitution, who do you think are the folks who frequent such businesses? The density of prostitution is far greater in red states than blue states, and the most common users of such facilities in convention cities such as Vegas are the visitors from red states.

Time the Vegas police shores up its security in anticipation of Muslim attacks.

LGF has a very interesting documentary up made by Danish TV about post-Van Gogh Holland. It pretty much underlines the point that the Dutch are not, nor have they ever been, tolerant. At worst they are indifferent and at best pragmatic. It has some interesting interviews and paints a sobering picture of Dutch society and in particular it reveals the sense of deep shock that things have not only spun out of control, but that the future indeed looks bleak.

The quote of the day comes from a young Muslim in the documentary who argues that Van Gogh's killer probably:

"did not have the strength to fight with democratic means"

From the same book that gave us "the fine line between acting lawfully and testifying falsely". Really, you wonder where they get it from, but I think even the Dutch won't be buying it this time. It does however make it very clear how, given the longstanding tradition of democracy in the Muslim world, the battle will be waged.

In London. The chief of Scotland Yard commented yesterday that a number of terrorist attacks had been averted:

When asked yesterday if these included an atrocity as terrible as that in Madrid on March 11, when bombs on four commuter trains killed 191 people and injured 1,800, he replied: "Yes, I can't discuss it because of court proceedings but yes, we have stopped a Madrid."

I always wondered how the British capital had managed to stay clear of Islamist violence but the answer is simple: the security apparatus is doing its work. Yes, we are winning some battles and it is important to highlight these successes as most of times they remain shrouded in the fog of war.

Andrew Sullivan highlights this piece from an interview in the American Prospect with US-based Dutch journalist, Marc Chavannes, about the Van Gogh affair:

"The van Gogh murder is a little bit like our 9-11. The degree to which the United States had changed after 9-11 was hard to fathom in Europe. Now, this one murder seems to be having a similar effect on my fellow Dutch nationals. In Europe we have experienced our own homegrown terrorism for years, so although Dutch people felt enormous solidarity with Americans after 9-11, many asked, "Aren't Americans a bit too focused on themselves when they keep saying that 9-11 was some huge paradigm shift?" The Netherlands, right now, is undergoing a similar sort of attitudinal change. It will be interesting to watch whether this change sparks a shift in Europeans' generally hostile attitude towards George W. Bush's aggressive foreign policy and his "axis of evil" style approach to the world."

Since Bush is still cast in Europe in exactly the same terminology as Chavannes uses in his answer, it’s not too hard to see why the Dutch and Europeans at large are still a long way from buying into the Bush doctrine. And that’s after the bombings in Madrid and the murder of Van Gogh.

The Dutch in general seemed to have slipped back to normal, the state of shock has slowly subsided and while the debate over Muslims and immigration has intensified there’s no rallying cry or a sudden refound national spirit to deal with an attack from the outside. And from the Dutch perspective that’s also where the problem is, there was no clearly identifiable outsider, the Muslim fundamentalist that killed Van Gogh was homegrown and unfortunately there’s more than just one.

The other problem that makes it hard to compare these events to 9/11 is the absence of a mainstream political group that is able to define the issue, point out the larger danger and come up with a strategy that is palatable to the population at large. The US has a long-standing tradition in academia, think-tanks and media (in particular, the neo-cons) who have in recent history found a conduit in the Republican party but equally into some Democratic circles. In Holland there’s nothing even remotely comparable, if there are any neo-con style writers, activists or politicians they are on the fringe of Dutch thinking and treated as such. The cries to wage a war on jihadist terror from some established politicians sounded hollow because not only had the Dutch never heard such rhetoric before, they lacked the broader framework to equate the killing of one man to a world-wide war. The debate however has started and the feeling that things are really amiss is starting to think in, but it may be a while before there’s a shift in attitude towards George Bush.

UPDATE: A new Dutch blogger reacts by pointing out there's a Dutch conservative think tank, the Edmund Burke Foundation. Good news, but I would put the Dutch conservative movement at the Goldwater stage although the issue of radical Islam might propel them to importance much quicker.

And while we are at the Bush agenda, here’s an interesting article by Kathleen Parker arguing that it is very unlikely that Bush is about to turn the US into a theocracy as many would believe. It seems to me that the clear-minded man of convictions is more dogmatic in areas where he knows that Americans will follow him, such as the War on Terror and tax cuts. Bush, as Parker argues, will tread carefully in areas where there is no broad-based support for items from the social conservative agenda. We therefore can see some some awkward compromises (like the one on stem cell research) or, as I would see it, more of the tendency to throw a bone to some particular interest group in order to please and return a favor. Bush is a radical pragmatist and not about to gamble away his legacy on a controversial and highly divisive issue.

Michelle Malkin - who now has an award named after her - is one of those on the right who is left-handed and points to a new theory about the rare phenomenon of left-handedness. Since I am a lefty as well I always get comments on it whenever I pick up a pen and have to endure the weirdest theories about it. Apart from the one that says that lefties are usually brainier than right-handers, I haven't heard any that convince me. The latest one, although more scientific than others, seems equally implausible.

So far Peaktalk has raised $100 and is lagging in the blogger challenge. So please, adjust your Christmas budgets a littlle bit and commit a few bucks to help buy library books for Iraqi schoolchildren. The special Peaktalk contribution site is here.

Here's the original post:

The tipjar button on the left has been there for while now, but instead of sending me some Christmas gifts - which you can always do – we should send something to Iraq. The Spirit of America is organizing a blogger challenge which basically comes down to which blog can raise the most money for Iraq. I have signed up for this and chosen to raise money for Children’s books for Iraqi kids. This is not a random pick, we are building Iraq from the ground up and the best way to do that is invest in a new generation. On a daily basis I see how much my daughters enjoy reading books or me reading book after book for them so that’s why.

It’s time to put our money where our mouth is. Supporting the war effort by writing about it is great but now is the time to ensure that it has not been for nothing. In order to get started I contributed $25 but will put in another $25 if we hit a Peaktalk total of $500 and $50 if we hit $1000. The drive ends on December 15 and you can contribute as little as $5.

Of course you will get regular reminders from me, it's a blogger challenge for a very worthy cause and I think we should really make a difference here, a $1000 buys some 100 books for a children's library.

Come on Peaktalk readers get out your credit cards, checkbooks or call Spirit of America and help educate a new generation of Iraqis by contributing here at the Special Peaktalk contribution site!

Was my initial reaction after hearing the news yesterday that al-Qaeda attacked the US Consulate in Jeddah (or Jidda?), yet at the same wondering: is that all that the Saudi-based jihadists can come up with these days? Scale however may not have been the objective of this effort:

The consulate attack appeared designed to grab the limelight as much as refocus the campaign on a target likely to draw sympathy from ordinary Saudis. Many citizens, including independent clerics who have condemned al-Qaeda's campaign against foreign nationals in the kingdom, are more willing to acquiesce in attacks on American targets.

We are overestimating the powers of the House of Saud. As in Europe, the Muslim clergy appears to be setting the agenda and fanning the flames. If European governments have a hard time taking on these disruptive elements, then try and imagine what it's like for Saudi authorities willing to co-operate and combat terrorism by taking on the very source of their nation's cultural and religious identity. They may be provoking a civil war. To be continued.

What I first thought was a joke seems to be true; many Americans are considering leaving everything behind, and making a move north to Canada. Since life is always about politics and markets what is truly baffling to me is that they are not only prepared to move to a high tax environment, they are willing to swallow a bitter pill that sees some 25% of their net worth wiped out due to the very unfavorable exchange rate at the moment. Not only that, the lengthy immigration process may well see to it that the value of their holdings may be eroded even further given the pessimistic outlook for the greenback. If that’s the case however, then the US has become an incredibly attractive bargain for Canadian residents willing to move south, discounting future economic uncertainties. All of a sudden a villa in Orange County is within reach thanks to Bush's prolific spending, something that he can actually be blamed for.

Anyway, it seems to me there’s a deal here and the ruling parties in both countries stand to gain from making it work. The conservative and ambitious can move south and trade their residency papers with disgruntled idealists moving north. Republicans can roll out the carpet for some potential voters and Paul Martin and his Liberals can welcome some new constituents who are so driven by sheer idealism that they are totally ignorant about the cost of their move. Prime targets for new tax initiatives: welcome to Canada!

UPDATE: More nonsense.

The good news from Iraq, that is. Arthur Chrenkoff has another great edition up here.

And while we are at it, can I ask you again to contribute to Peaktalk's drive to raise money for books for Iraqi children? Go here to contribute. Thanks!

From all over Europe reports start coming in on how to integrate or live together with Islam. Melanie Philips takes on a report from the Guardian and paints a bleak picture of the efforts in the UK, while this piece in the Times looks at the issue on a pan-European basis and it describes the various attempts that are underway to assimilate the growing Muslim community. An equally disconcerting view of the problems Europe is facing can be found in Trouble in Paradise, a lengthy assessment in the FT of Islam in The Netherlands and the aftermath of the Van Gogh killing. None of the authors seem to be able to point to a way forward but that probably stems from the fact that Western societies have become pretty clueless about their own core values, the relationship between society and the church and yes the hard fact that the huge Muslim immigration into Europe simply cannot be reversed.

It’s nice to argue for integration, language courses and opening the debate with imams as the Dutch have done, but it all is pretty meaningless if you note that the radicals that were picked up in Holland (including Van Gogh’s killer) recently were all fluent in Dutch, had enjoyed higher levels of education and were residing in a decent slot on the socio-economic ladder. Some weren't even Arab, they were Dutch-Americans that had converted to Islam. If anything, the jihadists are more likely to be found among the intelligent and socially mobile, but I will agree that language and other immersion programs are at the very least a first step. This weekend a protest by moderate Muslims in Norway is another hopeful move but it also revealed another issue:

Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik was disappointed over the fact that most Imams boycotted the protest march. They say they are against violence and murders. Why don't they join us here in this protest, Bondevik said to NRK (Norwegian an Broadcasting) during the march.

As I pointed out before the real solution lies in a pro-active stance by moderate Muslims but as long as they fail to bring in or take on the really influential opinion makers in their communities then it will be a very long and hard struggle. It’s unfortunate that what is essentially an internal Muslim issue, the clash between modernity and fundamentalism, has now spilled onto Europe’s streets. And more European blood will likely be spilled before a moderate and modernist movement within Islam can credibly and successfully loosen the grip that old values have on its religion. As with any reform movement it can only succeed if a genuine quest for change comes from within. And while a US led War on Terror and European efforts to modernize and integrate Islam are essential in protecting the West, in the end they are insufficient to bring about Muslim enlightenment and modernization. That can only be achieved from within. It’s a long road to reform and it is one that may last generations.

NOTE: More good reading on the Dutch situation in Amsterdamned.

UPDATE: Bruce Bawer has some sobering comments and photos following the Muslim protest in Norway (via Sullivan).

Traffic picked up in the run-up to the presidential election but the Van Gogh murder obliterated all previous traffic records thanks especially to Glenn Reynolds, Andrew Sullivan, Roger Simon, Arthur Chrenkoff and Jeff Jarvis who were all equally intrigued by this story and were kind enough to refer to me as one of the experts in the field, the other one is here. The list of top referrers on the left sidebar has now been updated.

More importantly there are many returning visitors to this site on a regular basis and all I can say is thanks. Thanks for visiting, thanks for commenting and thanks for the many suggestions, ideas and encouraging words I get on a regular basis by e-mail. I have fun running Peaktalk but encouragement from all of you makes it a really worthwhile thing and in turn will make it harder to ever let it go (which I briefly did earlier this year). In fact all the feedback makes it a better site, I believe, and so in a way it has become a long term investment for the days that I hopefully will be able to devote more time to it than I do now. Yes, it would be nice to become a full-time pundit. Thanks again!

In the spirit of our never ending quest for more information, I have created a new feature on the right sidebar, Think Tanks. Click through and enhance your knowledge.

It was news that stayed under the radar internationally but I think I should at least make a mention of the death at age 93 of Prince Bernhard of The Netherlands. The husband of former Queen Juliana was not only a flamboyant character; he was a pivotal figure in Dutch history who during World War II became leader of Dutch armed forces and the Dutch resistance. Contrary to popular belief, some European royalty do have influence in state affairs (notably the British and Dutch royal houses) and Bernhard was a prime example of this phenomenon. So much that he became entangled in a bribery scandal after US aircraft manufacturer Lockheed paid him significant sums of money to influence the Dutch ministry of Defense acquisition policies:

The prestige of the House of Orange suffered a serious blow in 1976 when Prince Bernhard was implicated in the Lockheed bribery scandal. A commission of three wise men was set up to investigate allegations that Bernhard had accepted a large sum of money from the Lockheed Aircraft Corporation in America in exchange for promoting the company's interests in the Netherlands.

The commission concluded that Bernhard's dealings with Lockheed had not in the end affected Dutch military acquisitions policy and the government ultimately decided not to prosecute the prince. The queen considered abdication in the event of legal proceedings against her husband. Instead, Bernhard was forced to relinquish all his public functions and resign from all his military ranks, a decision that was partially reversed under pressure from former members of the Dutch resistance.

While averting a constitutional crisis the Dutch cabinet meted out one of the harshest penalties by disallowing Bernhard to wear the uniform that not only represented his service during the war, it had also established a deep bond between him and the Dutch people. Reuters argues that his popularity waned after the affair but that’s incorrect, it was bruised for a short while only and the Dutch pretty soon forgave the prince his momentary lapse of judgement. His service outweighed his mistake but it wasn't until 1991 that he was allowed to wear a uniform again which he usually did during veterans events, events he attended until shortly before his death.

Bernhard himself was very well aware of the bitter fruits the Lockheed affair had yielded; “the word Lockheed will be carved in my tombstone” he remarked in an interview that was released shortly after his death last week.

In the department of recycling old stuff, here's my post on St. Nicholas Eve from last year. Given the renewed interest in things Dutch and the politcal and historical undertones it probably makes for some good Sunday reading:

Tonight is the evening the Dutch celebrate Sinterklaas or St. Nicholas. Yes, the origins of Santa Claus are probably Dutch who took the tradition to North America when they started settling Manhattan and moved up along the Hudson River in the 17th century. In Holland, St. Nicholas arrives every year by steamboat from Spain where he is employed as a Roman Catholic bishop, accompanied by his assistant(s) the so-called Black Pete(s). So no Father Christmas and reindeer from the North Pole, but the principles are the same.

If ever there is fodder for historians and the politically interested here it is for it is a mystery why a country built on a Reformist revolution would continue to worship a Roman Catholic bishop residing in the country it defeated during that revolution. In most other Protestant European countries (and North America) the Catholic-Protestant dilemma was fixed by merging the St. Nicholas festivities with Christmas and giving the man a new look and name, but I guess it was hard for the pragmatic Dutch to ban this persistent tradition. In any case they have become less tolerant these days when it comes to Black Pete. Black Pete is not only black, he is an assistant and that of course does not sit well with those that call themselves politically correct, and in recent years they have been attempting to take away a time-honored tradition from children in order to satisfy their political dogmas. Black Pete is interesting since he is often described as a Moor, which makes him a Muslim and this fits into the historical map of Europe where large chunks of Spain at one point were conquered and settled by Muslim armies, in fact they got as far as the middle of France. Yet, there’s one complication, St. Nicholas although hailing from Spain, is based on an actual bishop who lived in Turkey in the early Middle Ages, in the city of Myra to be precise, which puts him most likely in a time slot well before the advent of the Ottoman Empire.

As I said, the role that St. Nicholas performs is not that different from Santa Claus, he arrives on his steamboat from Spain on his White Horse with Black Petes to bring gifts to the kids. For those that are naughty, the implicit threat is that the Black Petes will take you back to Spain where utter hell and torture would await. Until age six I was both obsessed with, and terrified of St. Nicholas and to this day I know all the songs celebrating the “Good Holyman” as he was called, by heart. It brings back memories of cold winter evenings, special St. Nicholas candies, gifts and long exciting family evenings unwrapping the gifts brought all the way from Spain. These were usually delivered by the Saint himself, or otherwise by some Black Petes who happened to be in the neighborhood. These days Black Pete runs the risk of being beaten up by disgruntled Muslim youths in Dutch inner cities.

These, my North American friends, are the origins of Santa Claus and the Dutch celebrate it on the eve of St. Nicholas’ birthday, the latter being December 6. Irene and I have merged the event as well, the kids being well aware of St. Nicholas, but equally aware that in our case it will not be until Christmas when he will show up with a bag full of gifts.

You know what it is like to take a kid to the dentist, screaming and kicking but after the visit you hear “it wasn’t that bad, in fact it was pretty good”. It seems that is how the Bush visit to Canada earlier this week is playing out. Here’s David Frum:

Meanwhile, I spent yesterday afternoon fielding calls from Canadians and especially Canadian journalists by no means friendly to the president who just could not stop enthusing about the wit, charm, warmth, and understanding of the president’s speech.

Bush’s visit was a diplomatic triumph, from the failure of Canada’s small but vociferous anti-American minority to turn out in the cold streets of Ottawa to the new tone taken by prime minister Paul Martin – and perhaps above all to the laughter and cheers of the president’s audiences.

Here’s Paul Martin’s acknowledgement, which is significant:

“We are in a war against terrorism, and we are in it together: Americans and Canadians"

But the detractors are still vocal, make no mistake about it. Lawrence Martin writes in one of Canada’s largest newspapers, The Globe and Mail (subcriber link only), that the speech was crafted to play to the conservative crowd back home and he tries to dispel some of Bush’ comments and historical analogies:

To compare the gigantic military might of Germany that was rolling over Europe and toppling countries like dominoes to the threat of terrorists who hijack planes and detonate car bombs every now and then may well rank as one of the most preposterous exaggerations on record.

But fear-mongering works. In terms of the power it gives Mr. Bush to bend the world to his wishes, there are still great gains to be made from the political exploitation of the terror threat. So why not compare it to the Third Reich?

Like many others, Lawrence Martin doesn’t get it. The intent of totalitarian ideologies remains the same; it’s the tools and strategies that have changed over time. But even then, today’s loosely organized rogues may be able to wreak the same amount of devastation as the Third Reich if we let them develop their capabilities unhindered. Iran is developing nuclear weapons, our friend Pervez Musharraf may fail to keep Pakistan in line and then there’s Saudi Arabia, the biggest question mark of them all. The Third Reich was a timeless lesson about the outcome of history if threats and early warning signs are ignored; today we’re acting on them. But Martin is right that the comparison to the Third Reich is flawed. It’s precisely because of that valuable lesson we are now able to identify the early stage radical Islam is in and compare it to Nazism. We’re not dealing with a Third Reich equivalent yet, it’s in Weimar Republic stage and that is all the more reason to act early, and decisively.