In random order here are some of the more important conclusions from yesterday's election:
The Establishment Lost - Remember that Fortuyn’s campaign four years ago was launched with a book against the then ruling 'purple' coalition (Labour, VVD, Democrats 66). All of these three parties lost significantly last night.
Fractionalization - In fact all the major players lost and a fringe group from the left (Socialist Party) and the right (Wilders’ Party for Freedom) were able to get serious traction at the ballot box. In addition a number of other smaller parties gained a place at the table, contributing to a process that has fractionalized the Dutch parliament to an unprecedented degree.
Instability - The latter will make governing very, very hard.
Divisions on the Left - Wouter Bos Labour’s party failed essentially because it was not able to unite the hard and more moderate left into one coherent and pragmatic story. Tony Blair is one of the few to have managed that, but the Democrats in the US and the Socialists in France face exactly the same problem. It requires rare political talent and a unique set of circumstances to accomplish it.
And Divisions on the Right - The same applies to the right, although Dutch conservatives have in particular been quite pro-active at ruining their own chances for success. The drama within the VVD (the Rutte vs. Verdonk leadership struggle and the Hirsi Ali debacle) and the inability of the smaller right-of-center players to unite has cost the essence of Fortuyn’s legacy a chance to survive beyond his death, at least for now.
No Americanization - Wilders emphasized that he stands for more than just countering Islamization, but when you add in lower taxes and cracking down harder on crime, it all is just too much of an American deal for the cautious Dutch. They are only prepared to move to the right carefully, without losing the framework built by decades of gentle social-democracy.
Bias to the Left - That was underlined by the after-election reactions. Most parties wasted no time to distance themselves from Wilders as being ‘too radical’, a reaction that inexplicably was not applied to that other equally hard-line outfit, the triumphant Socialist Party.
Challenges Ahead - So the traditional right and left have to go back to the drawing table and seriously think how they will position themselves going forward. The Christian-Democrats in the meantime will be given the unappealing duty to form a government with, most likely, the battered Labour party and one of the untested smaller outfits. By all accounts hardly an appealing perspective.