An Unclear Message and a Leftward Tilt

So, here's the culmination of a few weeks of analysis and poll tracking: election day. We should have a fairly good idea of the end result around 1:00 PM Pacific Time, and I will track developments with lots of links and commentary throughout the morning.

Expectation: the result will confuse all the pundits that have been writing and talking about the 'Dutch right turn', but the outcome will probably give us ample material to keep following the troubled nation for years to come.

Here's a primer for the uninitiated.

7:51 AM Turn-out among immigrants is high (maybe even reaching 78%), it is estimated that they will determine 12 seats (out of a 150-seat parliament). Apparently there is lots of interest from Arab and Moroccan TV-stations as a Labour victory would see Amsterdam councillor Ahmed Aboutaleb become minister.

9:15 AM The mainstream media are actively looking at the Dutch too. The Guardian claims that The Dutch Recover Their Courage while the Washington Times sees a welfare-cutting prime-minister cruising to victory. Both outlets could be very wrong.

9:20 AM The woman who would have run, and who now resides at AEI weighs in on the burqa ban debate.

10:10 AM The first exit poll is expected at 11:50 AM from RTL , which is stirring up a little controversy as they will be releasing these numbers ten minutes before the polls close.

11:30 AM While we are awaiting results it may be worthwhile noting that the Dutch have a proportional representation system and - as opposed to Germany - no threshold to get represenation. If indeed we end up with the Party for the Animals in parliament with one seat, you know the numerical logic behind it.

Another remarkable thing to note is that one religious party, the small Christian Union (not to be confused with the Christian Democrats) is also expected to do well. Interestingly this party positions itself to the left of the center and is therefore associated with a more socialist interpretation of the bible. And the Socialist Party - yes, the one with the maoist roots - has benefited from the participation of Huub Oosterhuis, a former priest known for the quote: "The Socialist Party is closer to the social ethics of the Bible than many Christian parties." Whoever said Europe had gone secular?

11:45 AM Look, I really like the Jerusalem Post but this heading is just ridiculous: Hard-line prime minister looks set to win Dutch elections. Hard-line?

11.58 AM EXIT POLL The Christian-Democrats of the 'hard-line' incumbent prime-minister are set to win according to RTL's exit poll. But marginally, all the large parties lose seats, the smaller parties are doing well. Here's your ticket to instability.

The NOS - Dutch public broadcaster - has its numbers here, they are different, but same trend. The big winner is the Socialist Party, the party that was born out of the split in the Dutch communist party in the 1970s. They have acquired a measure of respectability and have been clever at marketing to the undecideds. But they remain an old-style left-wing outfit, come to think of it, they are actually 'hard-line'. With some 20% (this may change) of the vote they may be holding the balance of power and actually have a say in a new coalition arrangement. Think Noam Chomsky heading up the US Treasury.

Geert Wilders does well, as does the Party for the Animals. If these numbers hold we're going back to vote sooner rather than later. The only likely coalition may be Christian Democrats-Labour-Christian Union and as I mentioned, this will be a left-religious undertaking.

It's early and a grand centre-left coalition of Christian Democrats-Labour is equally likely. But centre-right is out of the question.

The traditional Dutch right, the free-market liberal VVD (Verdonk, and formerly Hirsi Ali) is suffering a severe electoral blow. And they deserve it.

12:21 PM You can follow Dutch TV here. Just saw the leader of the Party for the Animals commenting that addressing "the castration of pigs without an anaesthetic" will be her first priority now that she has entered parliament. I kid you not.

12:47 PM The Fortuyn revolution is over, that much is clear. His intellectual heir (whom I had the pleasure of meeting a little while back), Marco Pastors will be lucky to win only one seat. The Fortuyn vote has gone to the successful Christian-Democrats, Wilders and yes, the Socialist Party. The anger and discontent are still there but they have been channeled in a different direction.

1:08 PM The numbers are updated and a Christian Democrats-Labour coalition with a majority looks unlikely now.

Prime-minister Balkenende will stay on as the nation's leader, a job that will not go to Labour's Blairite talent Wouter Bos. Bos failed to unite the left under one reformed umbrella and is paying a heavy electoral price for this tonight.

2:18 PM A very high turn-out: 80.8%.

2:24 PM Here are the most recent, probably final, numbers. In summary, the left has won marginally but as it stands divided between the moderate Bos (Labour) and radical Marijnissen (Socialist Party) it has been unable to actually win this election outright. So the default winner, Christian-Democrat Balkenende, will have the unenviable task of having to form a left-of-center coalition. In that he will have to distance himself from his own successful economic policies. What will happen with the immigration and law and order files remains unclear, but they will not be addressed from a conservative perspective, that much is certain.

More analysis about the election and its broader implications in the days ahead.

Others Blogging
Klein Verzet (which translates to 'Small Resistance') has some pre-analysis and argues that "Subconsciously, everybody feels the stakes are very high". I think he's right.

Dutch blog Sargasso runs an election cafe and has a very useful post with seat projections.

At Crooked Timber, Ingrid Robeyns has a preview and notes that the Party for the Animals is projected to win a parliamenary seat (h/t One Way Street: Aesthetics and Politics).