When the exit polls were released yesterday there appeared to be some upbeat mood about a Kadima win and the likely ease of cobbling together a Kadima-Labor coalition. Having the digested the final numbers, we need to temper such enthusiasm just a bit. Kadima ended up with 28 seats which is not even a quarter of the Knesset and together with Labor a coalition would be far short of a necessary parliamentary majority. Ergo, Olmert needs help from the smaller parties and that could potentially affect the effectiveness of Kadima’s tentative win.

Israel’s electoral system is almost identical to the Dutch one, a form of proportional representation where the tinier and less relevant special interest groups have a very decent shot at earning seats, to the detriment of the larger parties. It may be time for Israel to follow Germany’s example where a 5% threshold is required before a party can get any representation in parliament. That would prevent entities like for instance Hadash and Meretz getting in and would drastically reduce the seat count of the Pensioners party which did well last night.

Above all, Israel needs a broad national consensus to give effect to Ariel Sharon’s vision and while Ehud Olmert can probably make things work, there will always be a risk that such a fragile coalition may fall apart at a critical juncture. And that makes governing Israel, not an easy task to begin with, a highly challenging undertaking.

Other Reactions:

Dutchblog Israel argues that the low voter turn-out affected Kadima and Labor.

Allison Kaplan Sommer on Kadima: “A key strategic error in the campaign -- they acted like confident front-runners, so even those who really wanted them at the helm felt free to vote their social issues and support smaller parties”. Exactly the phenomenon I described above, call it a frivolous vote with a disastrous result.

John Podhoretz - via Hugh Hewitt - expects it will be a short-lived government and another call to the polls soon, Roger Simon doesn’t think so.

Ed Morrissey rightfully attributes the Kadima win to Ariel Sharon: “The lower turnout underscores the grim decision that faces their country, but the result confirms the wisdom and brilliance of the first of the hard-liners who dared to imagine another path to security”

Israpundit has a round-up of reactions too and is not very optimistic about the outcome.

However tentative the mandate, it is a new beginning and there is merit for ending on a positive note. Jonathan Edelstein points out that Olmert can build a coalition with the help of the smaller parties and says “We have just witnessed the beginning of the end of the occupation, and the continuation of Israel's journey back to itself. Ladies and gentlemen, the good guys won” Let’s hope he’s right.