The pessimists see a China as an unstoppable economic miracle that will become the next superpower and militarily challenge US hegemony, the optimists see China as an unstoppable economic miracle that will become a future US partner in a new Pacific age.

I definitely veer towards the latter, but will concede that we need a healthy dose of realism here. A realist will argue that China is a useful example of reforming a communist nation by unleashing huge economic potential first while considering democratic reform as a secondary, more gradual, item on the wish list. At the same the realist will take a very sobering view of what is currently shrouded by the incessant growth numbers and success stories that we are asked to take at face value. That is The Dark Side of China’s Rise, as outlined by Minxin Pei. Key excerpt:

China has already paid a heavy price for the flaws of its political system and the corruption it has spawned. Its new leaders, though aware of the depth of the decay, are taking only modest steps to correct it. For the moment, China’s strong economic fundamentals and the boundless energy of its people have concealed and offset its poor governance, but they will carry China only so far. Someday soon, we will know whether such a flawed system can pass a stress test: a severe economic shock, political upheaval, a public health crisis, or an ecological catastrophe. China may be rising, but no one really knows whether it can fly.

And therefore it is in our strategic interest to help China along when it encounters its various stress tests, which given our previous experiences with emerging tigers will initially be economic ones. Minxin Pei’s observations by the way contain a kernel of hope for the pessimists: China is not nearly as strong or as threatening as some try to make it out to be.