It’s been a very busy day and my plan to come up with a lengthier analysis on Hamas did not come to fruition. Not to worry of course, here are some random thoughts.

Have we been here before? Are we up for another transformation and witness how a terrorist group makes the almost impossible transition and becomes a democratically elected government? There’s strong case to be made that Hamas has learned from what came before it. It benefited royally from Arafat’s disingenuous approach to peace, not to mention his inability to forge any coherent social-economic policy. Hamas played the radical card which probably deteriorated the livelihood of average Palestinians even further, but as the opposition it could always claim it would some day be able to deliver a better alternative.

So, is that alternative rooted in a journey to moderation and co-operation or in unrestrained radicalization? Despite the disappearance of prominent figures such as Sheik Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi, Hamas appears not to have lost any of its ideological fire. However it should be noted that the group is not as cohesive as we sometimes assume and the sudden sweep to power could well spark an internal battle between pragmatists and purists.

The purist’s message is simple, war and the destruction of Israel, at any cost. The question is who will bear the cost as such an approach would further destroy whatever is left of the Palestinian economy and forever dry up the steady stream of international aid. It would make the Hamas-lead authority susceptible to very unsavory donors which would further precipitate the Palestinian journey into the abyss. At that point by the way, Israel will long have disengaged from any roadmap or unleashed some real destructive power onto its direct enemy.

It’s not an unlikely scenario. Pragmatists do not have a great track record in steering their party in a direction of common sense once it has freshly gained power. The history of Soviet style communism and Mao’s purge of those who strayed too far from the book are clear examples of how internal battles in totalitarian groups can end. Pessimists may even argue that the struggle between radicals and moderates was actually waged over the past decade and that today’s result concluded that fight in favor of the hard-liners and the irreconcilable nature of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The latter is not a foregone conclusion, but Hamas ascent to power must even give the staunchest optimist food for desperation.

NOTE: There a solid round-up of reactions over at Pajamas Media, and of individual blogger reactions. In addition to those I would point to the Head Heeb and Dutchblog Israel for some sound analysis.