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NO MANDATE FOR MERKEL
Sunday, September 18, 2005
NO MANDATE FOR MERKEL
Despite some assessments, the conservative CDU/CSU actually lost seats in the parliamentary election today, what saved Merkel form a real debacle was that Gerhard Schroeder actually lost more. The big winners were the smaller parties, the free-market FDP and the Left Party, the latter an entity that is so far to the left that even Schroeder doesn’t want to work with them. To be clear: the real losers today are both Schroeder and Merkel. The phenomenon where the large parties lose and the smaller ones pick up a significant number of seats to the extent that none of the large parties can form a clear majority government is not new, the Dutch have some experience with it and it usually represents deep dissatisfaction among the voters, a level of uncertainty and thus political instability going forward. Let’s for a second assume that Schroeder steps down - yes, he’s seriously considering to hang on - and that Merkel becomes chancellor with the unenviable task to build a grand coalition with a Schroeder-less SPD. We will see: • No clear economic reforms in Germany but rather some piecemeal attempts to tinker around with the existing arrangements; • No material improvement in US-German relations; • No decisive German leadership or assistance in dealing with challenging international issues or potential crises such as Iran; • No clear German voice when it comes to defining the future shape of the European Union. Not good for the German left, not good for the German right, not good for Germany and hardly a positive outcome for the rest of the world. NOTE: Projected seat allocation in the new Bundestag: CDU/CSU 220 (-28) With these numbers (and if you count the CDU/CSU and FDP as the right) the combined left (SPD, Green and Left Party) has actually won compared to the 2002 election. UPDATE: The above numbers were posted a few hours ago - after which I went out for the Sunday round in the yard - and when I returned the preliminary official end results looked quite different. The changes were such that I might as well have titled this post "Tentative Mandate for Schroeder". Here we go again: CDU/CSU 225 (-23) Germany's left did well today. 
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