Former Chinese leader Zhao Ziyang passed away earlier today. He was Deng Xiapoing’s second pick to lead China after his death into a new era after his first choice Hu Yaobang fell from grace in 1986. It was Hu’s death in 1989 that sparked the Tiananmen protests which in turn became Zhao’s undoing after he sided with the student demonstrators. He spent the remainder of his life under house arrest and was only allowed to leave his house for the occasional round of golf, giving the press a rare opportunity to once in a while snap a photo of him. One of these pictures emerged in the Hong Kong press in 1997 shortly after Deng’s death with the suggestion that Zhao might return to lead China after the old man’s death. The possibility of that happening was remote as the hard-liners around Jiang Zemin had consolidated their grip on power by, among other things, ensuring that Zhao remained well out of the public eye. Zhao Ziyang grasped the urgent need for reform, he did not grasp that its first phases were to be restricted to the economy only.

UPDATE: Dan Drezner makes it clear why Zhao's death will not spark the same protests as Hu's death.