The Bush visit to Canada starts today and of course media on both sides of the border have started to analyze the differences between the two nations and assess where they may find common ground. Personally, I have written more than enough about this, there’s an entire archive devoted to it.

In short, my view is that further integration of Canada into the US from an economic and security perspective is both inevitable and preferable, but then I am a pragmatic European with a strong inclination to free-markets and a soft spot for US foreign policy. Such integration will however not result in Canada ceasing to be a sovereign entity: Republicans in the US wouldn’t favor diluting their marginal hold on power by inviting millions of statist liberals into their midst (even if they bring lots of oil) and neither would the northern elites look kindly at diluting their power base for the sake of security and jobs. So whatever shape or form further US-Canadian co-operation takes, Canada will probably remain a renegade northern province for years to come. The separation will largely be social-economic in nature, from a cultural perspective Canadians are not that dissimilar to Americans as they like to think, no matter how hard some try to argue that case.

The real problem is that Canada is beset by the same legacy as Europe. Remnants of a centre-left elite continue to have a hold over government, media, judiciary, education and the framework of public debate and thus the overall direction of the country. From a social perspective that’s probably fine as Canadians have been willing to experiment in that department , although we shouldn’t overstate it: government owned liquor distribution and the inability to creatively solve drug addiction and help legalize prostitution are hardly the hallmarks of a socially progressive country, whatever Canadians think. What’s constraining progress is the continued grasp that government and unions have on economic life and the defeatist peacemaking instincts when it comes to foreign policy. Both are no longer of this day and age. A well organized conservative campaign, a severe economic downturn or a terrorist attack or a combination of all three are examples of a potential cure for Canada. The folks over at Diplomad pointed in the direction of hard medicine last week, although it shouldn't be administered by the US. When it's homegrown or from an alternate source Canadians are probably more likely to respond to it in a positive way.

Canada is not Europe, nor is it America. The country has the right ingredients to become a huge success story alongside its southern neighbour; it’s a matter of time and apt management of events. So the best thing to come out the Bush-Martin get together would be for the US to promise significant movement on lifting softwood lumber tariffs and beef imports and for the Canadians to sign up for missile defense and to commit to working towards a North American security perimeter. Again, pragmatic instincts would warrant such an outcome, but it hardly ever works this way. Let’s what happens in Ottawa and Halifax today and tomorrow.

Further Reading
Kate points to the experiences of an American living and working in Canada. And Jay Currie points a crucial difference between the US and Canada. Finally, read the long post I received from a reader below: A Canadian Bush Backer Speaks Out.

UPDATE I: Of course our American in T.O. has lots of comments.

UPDATE II: A reader from California writes to say that Canada could join the US using the 'Quebec formula': give up sovereignty and be part of the US but on day-to-day matters you can pretty much do your own thing, like yes, healthcare. Not likely to happen but Canada is indeed migrating to a scenario where most of the integration takes place without giving up sovereignty.

UPDATE III: And of course good stuff from Frum.

UPDATE IV: So far, protests are hardly impressive:

A few pro-Bush demonstrators on Parliament Hill were drowned out by a crowd of several hundred protesters who screamed at the U.S. President to “go home.” A march planned for later Tuesday is expected to draw a bigger crowd.

UPDATE V: But then of course, there are a lot of Friends of America in Canada.

UPDATE VI: Lots of pictures of the "protests" here, even the Trotskyites made the effort to welcome the President!