Looked at Osama bin-Laden’s well-timed re-appearance and there’s something in there for everyone. Yes, you could construe it as a peace offer but it will equally help reinforce the arguments made by the War on Terror crowd. Both camps will interpret and use the tape in a way that’s beneficial to their cause and both will have candidate in the election this Tuesday. And while some believe that it will benefit Bush, I tend to see the net effect of it as being negligible. No impact either way and that’s something OBL must have calculated himself before he went on air. He’s waging a war and whoever occupies the White House is irrelevant to his cause.

But here’s the underlying issue. A major attack on the US would have had exactly the same impact: reinforcing the case for Bush while Kerry could argue that America was less safe than ever. OBL however has not been able to launch such an attack; again underlining that his capabilities to do so are severely hampered. He has to resort to video-taped messages and farming out his war to smaller spin-off operations around the globe with al-Zarqawi in Iraq being the most lethal and prominent outfit to have emerged to date. The risk of a lethal attack has not diminished, with many smaller franchises around the world it has actually increased. It’s therefore odd that OBL did not use the opportunity of a media broadcast to rally his followers around the globe or directly threaten further attacks. Instead he narrowed his interest down very specifically (why did no one else pick this up?) by going back to his original strategic focus:

We fought with you because we are free, and we don't put up with transgressions. We want to reclaim our nation. As you spoil our security, we will do so to you.

Pay attention House of Saud, you may be by far the most important target for OBL and his loosely organized troops.