Bush didn’t stumble on the deficit or healthcare but he didn’t do great either: he crawled to the center in order remain palatable to the average American who is rightly worried about jobs and the cost of healthcare. Kerry offered up plans and – having learned from past debates – provided far more detail than before and that made him a much more credible candidate. The Democrat has been on a very steep learning curve, often falling flat on his face, but last night he corrected past wrongs by being creative and putting the global test to bed for good. If I had never met either guy before in my life I would be quite impressed with Kerry but question his leftist instincts, I would feel at ease with Bush but worry about him squandering the Reagan legacy which he hopelessly sought the resurrect in his closing remarks.

On economic issues Kerry was in charge of the debate and the merits of his now more detailed plans can be argued, but he commanded because the rebuttals from Bush were weak. Recycling Kerry’s voting record is a useful tool, but after tonight very few will know exactly what Kerry has voted for or against. The numbers were fudged and Bush failed to counter with what he should have: policy initiatives, creative approaches or even straightforward free-market rhetoric. That became patently clear by addressing a lot of economic issues with the Bush magic word: education. He’s right but up to a point: he omitted to be clear that governments can’t fix what free markets so efficiently allocate and instead suggested that pumping money into education would cure a lot of economic ills. The conservative base must be shaking its head over addressing a minimum wage question with education, if ever there was a point to rally the small business owners it was right there but Bush missed it. He had moved too far to the center to underscore the wonders of the entrepreneurial spirit. And then the deficit: the pay-as-you-go was a clear winner for Kerry who at that point aligned his base with the fiscal conservatives that had abandoned Bush, the profligate.

On social issues I was baffled to hear Kerry argue that we hadn’t gone far enough on affirmative action, it must have been an instant turn-off for centrists with a conservative bend. I was hoping to see some creative reply from Bush build around freedom and equal opportunity but again he took the uninspiring shortcut to education and rambling off some ubiquitous numbers about home ownership. On gay marriage both candidates finally articulated clearly where they stood without offending anyone and crafting those words in itself was an accomplishment for both candidates, the same applies to abortion. The winner in the social department however was Kerry, his interpretation of his beliefs as a catholic and how he committed that as President he would not to seek to transfer his faith to others was, and I am not belittling the Bush response, very impressive.

It could be argued that Kerry was ahead during most of the debate but towards the end Bush picked-up with a few great moments, punishing Kerry for co-opting John McCain and his priceless “I listen to them” response when asked about the role of women in his life. Bush is great when it comes to simple truths; his argument that he didn’t need a flu shot was on the mark and represented some common sense for members of a pampered society. This is where Bush was strong and far more effective than using references to Kerry’ voting record or being on the left-bank: the President is a down to earth American.

And while the debate was about domestic issues, security, foreign policy and terror came up a number of times and they focused the choice between the two candidates. Kerry used it to right past wrongs while Bush underlined his experience in defending the nation. Discount social affairs, they are not an election issue this time, so it’s down to taking a gamble on Bush economics or a left-of-center Democrat who has drifted to reality and has recognized the value of some tax cuts while reducing spending in order to balance the books. Both have moved to the center on economics, Kerry has the advantage of the challenger with Bush defending a poor record and abandoning his conservative free-market roots.

So there’s your choice: the folksy man that knows how to use a gun but lost his wallet in the process or the guy that knows he won’t lose it but is too scared to pick up a gun other than for the occasional hunt.

Random reaction round-up:

Professor Bainbridge got sick of both Kerry and Bush and stopped watching;
Steven Taylor thought Bush won;
Pejman thinks Bush was the stronger one because of foreign policy;
Matt Yglesias says both candidates won rounds but Kerry got the important ones;
Kevin Drum wonders about Bush and his Osama bin-Laden gaffe;
Fistful of Euros liveblogged and are calling it for Kerry;
Marc Cooper lists both candidates worst moments;
INDC has a comprehensive round-up, better than this one.