The discussion on al-Qaeda’s strength continues. I have put forward the argument that the organization remains a very serious threat and that their strategy has been adapted to the new realities of this world with a liberated Afghanistan and Iraq as well as a fortified North America. The Economist agrees with this idea:

“ … al-Qaeda may have sounded something of a retreat to its Arab homelands, where its operatives can more easily blend into the background. Some experts have even gone so far as to suggest that al-Qaeda has been reduced from an international network to a series of localised cells. Perhaps, but as the bombings in Riyadh and Casablanca have shown and the alerts around the world confirm, even in its new, disparate form, al-Qaeda remains a danger that should never be underestimated”

There is however a notion that the attacks from the group that we have seen over the past week are not of a scale that would have been commensurate with the group’s intentions and overall ambitions. Peter Wallison today refers to the “softness” of current targets. I tend to agree with his implied logic that given where we are today we probably should have seen attacks on high profile targets. The fact that they have not succeeded in doing so may be a sign that the group is temporarily disabled and that high profile targets are now well defended and protected. It does however not mean that the threat has disappeared or become immaterial. Wallison jumps a little too quickly to the conclusion that less spectacular attacks are evidence of al-Qaeda’s demise:

Thus, when we turn on our television sets in the months to come, and find that al Qaeda has attacked a school in Afghanistan, a church in Spain, or even a shopping mall in the United States, we should not see this as some kind of spectacular resurgence of the al Qaeda threat but as the final throes of a dying snake.

Yes, it appears that its modus operandi has changed. It could even be debated that its retreat to the Arab Peninsula and the Maghreb diminishes the risk to North America temporarily. But we can not for a second make the assumption that this death cult is in its final throes. Recent attacks have claimed numerous lives and American and European lives are at risk wherever they are. An attack on a shopping mall in the US to me would be evidence that the group has not lost one ounce of its lethal capabilities and bombing churches and schools would be equally disturbing and alarming, no matter where they occur. The worst thing to happen now would be to become satisfied and actually believe that al-Qaeda has been decapitated and that what is left are directionless cells that will gradually fade into irrelevance. If anything, I am even more worried that we will see less spectacular attacks and more attacks on a variety of soft targets, potentially resulting in more deaths and destruction around the world. The approach used in Riyadh and Casablanca may well be replicated in a number of other locations if the group is able to flex its muscle beyond the confines of the Arab world. The threat continues, unabated. Please let us not become complacent.