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NORTH KOREA CONTINUED
Monday, April 28, 2003


NORTH KOREA CONTINUED

In addition to Den Beste, there was another great link over the weekend by OxBlog referring to my Regime Raiding Rumsfeld piece. That title would do well in any British tabloid and I could not resist using it once I had created it. In fact, I guarantee you I will recycle it once Rummy takes on the tyrant of the island.

Regarding Pyongyang, it appears that we are making some progress by trying to involve the Chinese in a so-called regional solution, but I remain somewhat doubtful over the speed with which this can be achieved. Remember, China is in the midst of a power change and it takes at least a number of years for a clear decision making structure to crystallize in Beijing. Hu Jintao as the new President has to walk a very tight line as he will have to a large extent answer to former President Jiang Zemin who continues to chair the Central Military Committee. It is hard to get a clear decision out of Zhongnanhai at any time, but with the shifting power balance and yes, SARS, it will be challenging to get the Chinese leadership to commit to a clear path of dealing with North Korea which inevitably involves a move toward regime change in Pyongyang. Both SARS and North Korea will require the Chinese leadership to increasingly work with, and listen to, outsiders and for a new leader to be teaming up with the Bush administration is not exactly the most logical approach to establish strong leadership credentials in China, on the contrary. In the meantime, Colin Powell is today looking at yet another plan from the North Koreans that would ultimately deal with the nuclear issues.

Posted by Pieter Dorsman at 11:17 AM | DIGG This | del.icio.us | TrackBack (0)